028
FXUS63 KDVN 242342
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE FORECAST TONIGHT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED, BUT
MONITORING TRENDS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE NEED
FOR A HEADLINE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA IS RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM BRINGS THE DRIZZLE IN
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00 UTC
TONIGHT. I TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
BRING DEVELOP DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS
CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH THIS WIND SHIFT WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY BELOW A HALF MILE WERE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THIS EVENING SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FOR THIS EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE DREARY WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES INTO
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 40S IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNRISE. DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 40S IN FAR
SOUTHEAST IOWA, FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INCLUDED THE PRECIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION WITH MINOR CHANGES.
THE MILD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONFIDENTLY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON TRACK FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO BE OVER THE
AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S
SHOULD BE BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN.
A PROGRESSIVE, BUT RATHER STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO (WE'D BE WELL BELOW ZERO IF WE HAD SNOW COVER). HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S, AND 30S.
THOUGH POTENT, THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ALREADY MODIFYING
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MIX
WITH SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA. THIS IS HOWEVER DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND COLD AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
LOWER MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, AND INTERMITTENT
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. AREAS OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH/WEST
OF CID AND BRL TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING E/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FOSTER VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND VFR, WHILE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY LIFT TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TURNING
EASTERLY LATE AND INCREASING ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 10-15 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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