118
FXUS63 KDVN 250809
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
209 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE IMPACTING TRAVEL EARLY TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS OF LATE
EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE. LIKE KIDS WAITING UP ALL NIGHT FOR
SANTA, WE'VE BEEN PATIENTLY ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS OF 2 AM, NORTH WINDS ARE
BLOWING, BUT STILL GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS (EXCEPT DBQ AT
14KTS!), AND ONLY JUST BEGINNING TO MIX OUT THE FOG. HOWEVER,
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/INCREASE
IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS SET TO SPREAD IN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY,
RESULTING IN MIXING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION, AND
INCREASING VISIBILITIES. THIS IS MOST CONFIDENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, WITH WESTERN AREAS POTENTIALLY NOT SEEING THIS
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID MORNING. AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE, WE'LL
CLEAR OUT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY, AND SHOULD THE WEST REMAIN
SOCKED IN, EXTEND THAT TOWARDS THE 5-6 AM TIME FRAME.
TODAY, ONCE THE FOG BREAKS UP, WE'RE STILL GOING TO BE DEALING WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. NBM HIGHS TODAY ARE
QUITE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, I'VE KNOCKED THAT BACK JUST A BIT, BUT STILL
EXPECT A VERY MILD, ALBEIT GLOOMY CHRISTMAS DAY.
BY AFTERNOON TODAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BRINGING
LIFT TO OUR AREA, RESULTING IN THE STRATUS DECK PRODUCING MORE
DRIZZLE. INITIALLY, THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY, BUT BY EVENING, AS
STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES, AREAS OF DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIKE YESTERDAY, QPF WILL BE VERY LOW,
GENERALLY T-0.05", BUT WETTING SURFACES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD, AND
I'VE GONE AHEAD WITH 50-75% POPS FOR THIS EVENT. WITH THE DRIZZLE,
THE LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPEAR RIPE
FOR FOG FORMATION, AND DENSE FOG IS AGAIN A GOOD BET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THIS MILD, AND DREARY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY. THE NBM HAS FOLLOWED OTHER
GUIDANCE IN SHOWING MORE A OF PASSING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WETTER, CLOUDY, AND MILDER
FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. WHILE FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT
THIS FAR OUT, IT'S THE SAME LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE MIDWEST THEN,
THAT'S HERE NOW, AND I'D EXPECT SIMILAR ISSUES WITH OVERNIGHT FOG
AND ANY AREAS OF CONVERGENCE DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GREATLY INCREASED FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS GIVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION NOW PREFERRED. WHILE FAR FROM
CONFIDENT, THIS SLOWER LOW/COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY OFFERS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER, MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH, AS AN MUCAPE AXIS
NEARS OUR SOUTH, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR LOW AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER SLOWING OF THE TIMING, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT INTO OUR AREA, BEFORE WE SEE STRONG CAA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW, OUR POPS DO SHOW RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT ENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE
MOMENT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN IMPACTFUL TRANSITION.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO APPEAR RATHER COLD,
WITH A POTENT SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING,
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -12 REACHING INTO OUR
CWA. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR US, GIVEN OUR LACK OF SNOW COVER, WITH
THIS COLD WINDY PATTERN WOULD BE TO FREEZE OUR MUDDY LAWNS
AGAIN.
THIS COLD LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK, AND FIRST DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S MOISTURE ADVECTION PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DRY ADVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER
LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
DEVELOP SOON, BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM, I'VE DELAYED THIS ONSET, AND
THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VISIBILITY, TO THE 09Z TO 13Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS WILL REMAIN QUIET LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS AN
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVED OVER OUR AREA. IN GENERAL, PERIODIC LOW
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON AN OFF THROUGH SUNDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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