765
FXUS63 KDVN 251703
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1103 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE AREA AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SE IOWA, NE MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF WC ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING. IN SOME CASES WEBCAMS SHOW LESS THAN A FEW HUNDRED FEET
OF VISIBILITY IN SPOTS. I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON TO BURLINGTON AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
RAN IT UNTIL 18Z/NOON. ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EXTENT, IF ANY, IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE FLOW JUST
OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE FROM THE ESE PER VWP DATA FROM DVN
AND ILX AND THUS MAY BE NEEDING TO EXTEND BEYOND 18Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS OF LATE
EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE. LIKE KIDS WAITING UP ALL NIGHT FOR
SANTA, WE'VE BEEN PATIENTLY ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS OF 2 AM, NORTH WINDS ARE
BLOWING, BUT STILL GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS (EXCEPT DBQ AT
14KTS!), AND ONLY JUST BEGINNING TO MIX OUT THE FOG. HOWEVER,
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/INCREASE
IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS SET TO SPREAD IN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY,
RESULTING IN MIXING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION, AND
INCREASING VISIBILITIES. THIS IS MOST CONFIDENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, WITH WESTERN AREAS POTENTIALLY NOT SEEING THIS
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID MORNING. AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE, WE'LL
CLEAR OUT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY, AND SHOULD THE WEST REMAIN
SOCKED IN, EXTEND THAT TOWARDS THE 5-6 AM TIME FRAME.
TODAY, ONCE THE FOG BREAKS UP, WE'RE STILL GOING TO BE DEALING WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. NBM HIGHS TODAY ARE
QUITE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, I'VE KNOCKED THAT BACK JUST A BIT, BUT STILL
EXPECT A VERY MILD, ALBEIT GLOOMY CHRISTMAS DAY.
BY AFTERNOON TODAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BRINGING
LIFT TO OUR AREA, RESULTING IN THE STRATUS DECK PRODUCING MORE
DRIZZLE. INITIALLY, THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY, BUT BY EVENING, AS
STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES, AREAS OF DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIKE YESTERDAY, QPF WILL BE VERY LOW,
GENERALLY T-0.05", BUT WETTING SURFACES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD, AND
I'VE GONE AHEAD WITH 50-75% POPS FOR THIS EVENT. WITH THE DRIZZLE,
THE LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPEAR RIPE
FOR FOG FORMATION, AND DENSE FOG IS AGAIN A GOOD BET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THIS MILD, AND DREARY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY. THE NBM HAS FOLLOWED OTHER
GUIDANCE IN SHOWING MORE A OF PASSING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WETTER, CLOUDY, AND MILDER
FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. WHILE FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT
THIS FAR OUT, IT'S THE SAME LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE MIDWEST THEN,
THAT'S HERE NOW, AND I'D EXPECT SIMILAR ISSUES WITH OVERNIGHT FOG
AND ANY AREAS OF CONVERGENCE DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GREATLY INCREASED FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS GIVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION NOW PREFERRED. WHILE FAR FROM
CONFIDENT, THIS SLOWER LOW/COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY OFFERS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER, MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH, AS AN MUCAPE AXIS
NEARS OUR SOUTH, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR LOW AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER SLOWING OF THE TIMING, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT INTO OUR AREA, BEFORE WE SEE STRONG CAA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW, OUR POPS DO SHOW RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT ENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE
MOMENT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN IMPACTFUL TRANSITION.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO APPEAR RATHER COLD,
WITH A POTENT SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING,
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -12 REACHING INTO OUR
CWA. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR US, GIVEN OUR LACK OF SNOW COVER, WITH
THIS COLD WINDY PATTERN WOULD BE TO FREEZE OUR MUDDY LAWNS
AGAIN.
THIS COLD LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK, AND FIRST DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CEILINGS:
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LARGELY ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW ILLINOIS
AND SOME TRANSITORY LIFTING TO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED AT MLI AND
POSSIBLY DBQ (LOWER CONFIDENCE) THIS AFTERNOON ON STRENGTHENING
E/NE FLOW BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN WITH SUNSET.
VISIBILITY:
CURRENTLY SEEING PREDOMINANTLY IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
ANTICIPATE FURTHER MODEST IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY MVFR TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EXPECT WITH SUNSET THAT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR AND
POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD VLIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION:
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, AS LIFT INCREASES I EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND
EVEN SOME AREAS OF LOW MEASURABLE (FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH)
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS:
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM E/SE INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS 5-15 KT
AND LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-15 KT FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE
LOW DEPARTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ076>078-087>089-
098-099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ025-034.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ009-010.
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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