671
FXUS63 KDVN 262337
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND, FIRST
WITH SHOWERS AND FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 EVEN T-STORM
POTENTIAL (20-40%) SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
- THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW, BUT MORE SO WINDY
AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 45 MPH AND WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 15 BELOW ZERO LIKELY TO START MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WIND, GUSTING OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 MPH, AND SLIGHT DRY AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PER 18Z DVN RAOB. GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME EROSION
TAKING PLACE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE SHALLOW. SOME OF THIS
EROSION COULD FURTHER DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND IF IT DOES WITH DECREASING WIND COULD
LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST AND ALSO AN
INCREASED FOG THREAT INITIALLY IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH
SUNSET AND A FURTHER STRENGTHENING INVERSION ANTICIPATE ANY
EROSION TO HALT, AND THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS BRINGS ABOUT THEN A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
DENSE FOG TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THE NORTHWEST WIND AND SLIGHT DRY
ADVECTION ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER, LATER ON
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS WINDS TURN LIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK TO MOIST ADVECTION WE MAY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP IN LINE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS SIGNAL IN
GUIDANCE.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST SATURDAY MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
ROCKIES, WE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS.
EVEN STILL WE'LL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS, THUS THE END RESULT BEING THE SAME IN SKIES STAYING
MAINLY CLOUDY. FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
(40S/50S), AND IN FACT IF WE CAN GET SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE,
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BEING CLOSER TO A WARM FRONT COULD MAKE A RUN
TOWARD 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR A
RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER, AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS RESULTS IN A DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM, AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEATHER.
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE, IN CONCERT WITH RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION AIDED BY A VEERING S/SW LLJ 40+ KTS WILL FOSTER
BURGEONING SHOWERS. PEAK COVERAGE (60-80%) IS ANTICIPATED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 30.
THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING SLUG OF RAIN, BUT
INTENSITY COULD BE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH AMOUNTS OVER
0.5 INCH IN SPOTS AS PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH. GIVEN THE
LACK OF FROZEN GROUND IN THIS AREA NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF HYDRO ISSUES. CAN'T RULE OUT ALSO SOME THUNDER WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH
THE LATEST LREF DEPICTING MEAN MUCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG INTO THE
SOUTH WITH UP TO 500 J/KG NOT TOO FAR AWAY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
IL/MO. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES.
ANOTHER BURGEONING ROUND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY LATER MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. THIS ROUND WILL BE THE ONE TO MONITOR FOR SURFACE BASED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL (DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO) IN A
HSLC SETUP, AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS (RRFS, HRRR, MPAS). THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE REALIZED IF WE
CAN REALIZE ANY BL DESTABILIZATION AS BEING HINTED OUT WITH
SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY
NEAR 60 FOR SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.
FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG
WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND 40 KT ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER AND WITH FAVORABLE MOMENTUM TRANSFER VIA DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION, AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SURROUNDING A SUB-980 SURFACE LOW, WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH POSSIBLY. THE SNOW CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATION APPEAR TO BE INCREASING, AS
A RESULT OF THE SLOWER/STRONGER SYSTEM OWING TO MORE MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SERVICE AREA NEAR THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
STILL A WAYS OUT, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION FROM GEFS AND EPS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD AND CURRENTLY
SIT AT 40-60% FOR PORTIONS OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. THE STRONG
WINDS WITH THE FALLING SNOW COULD BRING SOME BOUTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT
ANY UNTREATED WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AND BECOME SLICK.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
COMBINE THESE WITH THE WINDS AND IT WILL BE BITTER COLD WITH
WIND CHILLS LOWERING INTO THE RANGE OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW.
BE SURE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE MULTI-FACETED
SYSTEM WITH A POTENTIAL VARIETY OF IMPACTS!
NEXT WEEK, STARTING TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS TOWARD A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STAYING COLDER /NEAR NORMAL/ AND
WOULD FAVOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FOR NEW YEAR'S
EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
CURRENTLY TAFS ARE IFR TO LIFR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AS LOW CLOUDS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
12 UTC WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 18 UTC. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03 UTC WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES AS EARLY AS 06 UTC. THE DOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15 UTC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...COUSINS
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