165
FXUS63 KDVN 271050
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
450 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM TODAY, EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LOWER AT TIMES.
- A STRONG SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN, ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF I-80, AND A
TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY PM.
- WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY PM INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: AREAS OF FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND COULD LINGER NORTH OF I-80 INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER GLOOMY DAY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HI-RES MODELS HAVE THE FOG REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE COUNTIES ALONG I-80. THE
FOG COULD BE DENSE AGAIN TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TOGETHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, FUELED BY AN INCREDIBLE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS (-26 C TO +16 C, OR ~75
F!). WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AS
NOTABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND CORRESPONDING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE REGION, AND PWATS REACH TO NEAR 1" (>99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER NAEFS).
SUNDAY: CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND
DEEPENING BELOW 990MB. THE CURRENT FAVORED TRACK OF THE LOW
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD CHICAGO WOULD BRING THE WARM
SECTOR CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST TO EAST- CENTRAL COUNTIES,
WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA,
FOCUSED MORE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH UP TO NEAR
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, A WIDESPREAD QUARTER
TO HALF INCH IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POCKETS WHERE
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PASS THROUGH. VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY PM AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL FROM THE 50S/40S TO THE 20S/TEENS!
THIS ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS DUE TO A POSSIBLE
FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO (RIGHT NOW FAVORED NORTH I-80).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY:
FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG
W TO NW WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND 40 KT ATOP THE
MIXED LAYER AND WITH FAVORABLE MOMENTUM TRANSFER VIA DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION, AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SURROUNDING A SUB-980 SURFACE LOW, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ON GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THE SNOW CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION APPEAR432 TO BE INCREASING AS WELL, AS A RESULT OF
THE SLOWER/STRONGER SYSTEM OWING TO MORE MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SERVICE AREA NEAR
THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ OF SNOWFALL ARE BETWEEN 30-60% ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND DROP OFF SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH. THE
STRONG WINDS WITH THE FALLING SNOW COULD BRING SOME BOUTS OF
LOWER VISIBILITY AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY
NIGHT ANY UNTREATED WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AND BECOME SLICK.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
COMBINE THESE WITH THE WINDS AND IT WILL BE BITTER COLD WITH
WIND CHILLS LOWERING INTO THE RANGE OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW.
BE SURE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE MULTI-FACETED
SYSTEM WITH A POTENTIAL VARIETY OF IMPACTS!
TUESDAY - FRIDAY:
NEXT WEEK, STARTING TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS TOWARD A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STAYING COLDER /NEAR NORMAL/ AND
WOULD FAVOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FOR NEW YEAR'S
EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS (LIFR CEILINGS) AND
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG (LIFR/VLIFR VIS.). VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AT CID/MLI/BRL WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
THE FOG COMPLETELY ERODING NEAR DBQ. THE FOG WILL REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-
063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...MCCLURE/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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