003
FXUS63 KDVN 272039
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12 PM SUNDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 IN IOWA.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS IN
WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST MO.
- THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITIES (60-80%) OF 45+ MPH WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND A TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLICK ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF 2"+
SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT DENSE FOG WAS SEEN TODAY, THANKS IN PART
TO A VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 960MB PER OUR 18Z DVN SOUNDING. ABOVE
THIS INVERSION, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED 4.5C TO 13.6C AT 850MB
SINCE OUR 00Z SOUNDING LAST EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS INVERSION AND
THE INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF A LIFTING WARM
FRONT, HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN IOWA. SOME BRIEF
IMROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN, BUT EXPECT FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. A FURTHER EXPANSION SOUTH MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS. WITH SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST AS A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED IN SOUTHEAST NE NEAR
BEATRICE LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION, RAP 700-500MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE PROGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTH IN
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL, WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS PRIOR TO 10AM.
MODELS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE (EVIDENT BY PWS
RISING TO 1 TO 1.3" OR NEAR THE MONTHLY MAX FOR DECEMBER FOR
DVN) COMBINED WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD 0.40" TO 0.60" RAIN AMOUNTS HIGHEST EAST OF MS RVR
AIDING IN SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS
(45KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER) AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW (5-9MB 3-HR PRESSURE RISES PER THE NAM) WILL YIELD
25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. FOR THESE
REASONS, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH, THE
12Z HREF ENSEMBLE MAX PROBS SHOW EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING
HIGH WIND CRITERIA NORTH OF HWY 30 THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
WINTER IMPACTS
SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 50S/40S TO THE 20S/TEENS
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AND ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE FREEZING ON UNTREATED ROADS TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IOWA
DOT PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS QUICKLY GO BELOW FREEZING
AFTER 5 PM. WHILE BETTER FORCING FOR DEFORMATION SNOW WILL BE
FURTHER TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY, SOME ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30. MORE
INFORMATION ON TOTALS CAN BE FOUND IN LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MONDAY...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING US BACK TO WINTER
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO KEEP DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 2"+ HAVE
INCREASED IN PREVIOUS RUNS INTO THE 40-60% RANGE NOW PRIMARILY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 20, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO NO SNOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
MEASURE WITH THIS EVENT, WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS MAY BRING PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN
THE SNOW SHOWERS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS TOWARD A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STAYING COLDER, NEAR NORMAL, AND
WOULD FAVOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME RANGE. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS ONE
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE ARE FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S
DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
PREDOMINANTLY IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING
LOW.
CEILINGS
PREDOMINANTLY IFR TO LIFR. HOWEVER, ANTICIPATE A TRANSITORY PERIOD
OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR AT KBRL LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFTING/IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER SITES, BUT THIS IS
FAR UNCERTAIN WITH THE LOW PASSING NEARBY AND THEREFORE HAVE OPTED
TO STAY PESSIMISTIC. SURFACE LOW PASSING AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN
SHOULD SLOSH BACK IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS AT KBRL SUNDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITY
PREDOMINANTLY IFR TO VLIFR IN FOG. TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KBRL IS ANTICIPATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DETERIORATING TOWARD SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST AT KBRL FOR THIS TRANSITORY IMPROVEMENT TO BE MVFR TO VFR.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY IFR IMPROVEMENT AT BEST DURING ANY SHOWERS WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR.
PRECIPITATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS (30%) LATER THIS EVENING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
(80%) LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY BUT
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL DURING THAT BURGEONING PRECIPITATION PERIOD, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT/EXTENT AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION.
WINDS
SOUTHEAST THE REST OF TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AROUND 10 KT BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. SUNDAY
MORNING BY MID MORNING WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND PASSING COLD FRONT AT KCID
WITH THIS CONTINUING AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN QUITE GUSTY JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
FROM NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 35-45+ KT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ILZ015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ009-
010.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS/UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page