394
FXUS63 KDVN 280943
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MID/LATE MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TODAY: SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD A 1000MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AS A 140+ KT JET
STREAK EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT.
A RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED, FALLING FROM
1000MB EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 980MB BY EARLY MONDAY AM OVER
LAKE HURON. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW HASN'T CHANGED, GOING
FROM NORTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD CHICAGO AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE WARM SECTOR UP INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TO EAST-CENTRAL FRINGE OF THE OUTLOOK AREA (PORTIONS
OF HANCOCK, MCDONOUGH, AND PUTNAM COUNTIES), WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY
REACH THE THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MUCAPES REACHING 500+ J/KG AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SET TO BLAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STAY ELEVATED BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDING THERMAL PROFILES. THEREFORE, THE PRIMARY
RISKS ARE HAIL AND LIGHTNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CAMS SHOW
INCREASING MLCAPE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF
MACOMB. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF PUTNAM COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA COULD BECOME SURFACED
BASED AND POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF ISOLATED
TORNADO (2% CHANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT). FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PASS THROUGH.
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 45 TO 55
MPH, WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL FROM THE 50S/40S TO THE
20S/TEENS! THE ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP, POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS (ICY ROADS) FOR SOME AREAS DUE TO
A POSSIBLE FLASH FREEZE, MOST LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF I-80. IT'S
UNCERTAIN ON HOW IMPACTFUL THE FLASH FREEZE SITUATION WILL BE
AS ROADS MAY DRY OUT FROM THE STRONG WINDS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS LEADING
TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY AM WITH THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING.
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SO WE'LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ROAD CONDITIONS AS A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE IS POSSIBLE. FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THE
NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ BETWEEN 50-80+% NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND
MUCH LOWER TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE 1-3" ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS),
AND 1" OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL FEEL VERY COLD AFTER THE PROLONGED STRETCH
OF MILD WEATHER.
MONDAY: COLD AND WINDY WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. A WEAK CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON NEW YEAR'S EVE. LATE IN THE PERIOD,
MODELS ARE SHOWING A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG
INTO SUNDAY AM, SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY PM, AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO LIFR CEILINGS (~200 FT AGL) AT TIMES
BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45 KTS,
AND A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW AT DBQ WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-
063>068.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR ILZ001-002.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ025-026-034-035.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
MOZ009-010.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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