785
FXUS63 KDVN 131736
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW THERE IS A
20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
WEAK FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FORCING IS WEAK WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT KEPT THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6 UTC WEDNESDAY AND AFTER LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE AND THINKING THAT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES. IF THESE SHOWERS DO
MATERIALIZE, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE SHOWERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IT WILL BE VERY WINDY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MERIDIONAL, NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE
FLOW ALOFT TO DAMPEN ACROSS THE CONUS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. IT WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.
QUICK ON THE HEALS OF RIDGING, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING BUT DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITH THE ECWMF AND CMC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
AC CLOUD DECK ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
TREND INTO A MVFR DECK OUT OF WI AND EASTERN MN LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND AGAIN BY MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION BY WED MORNING TO BE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE IN SFC WIND SPEEDS,
THERE MAY BE EMBEDDED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MVFR CLOUD DECKS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WILL
NOT PLACE POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS JUST YET, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
PASSING VSBY RESTRICTIONS INTO THE MVFR REALM AS WELL BESIDES
THE DIPPING CIGS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...12
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