400
FXUS63 KDVN 140537
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCOMING COLD FRONT/PUSH LATER TONIGHT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
VEERING AND INCREASING SFC WINDS TO BRISK LEVELS WITH ROBUST
COLD ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
POSSIBLE.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO UTILIZE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION, BUT AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE.FOR NOW WILL
ADVERTISE 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING AT LEAST AN
INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE DVN CWA BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SHORT WAVE ENERGY SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
WILL LOOK TO TAKE A DEEP DIG TO THE SOUTH TO ACRS THE STL AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING IN UPPER LONG WAVE TROFF DEEPENING PROCESS.
RESULTANT NEAR MERIDIONAL FETCH DOWN THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY
WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD DUMP OF AIR OUT OF CANADA OR EVEN A WEST
HUDSON BAY SOURCE REGION THRU WED. CURRENT WAA AC/MID DECK OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY, SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH STEERING FLOW AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT. BUT THEY WILL GET REPLACED
BY LOWER CAA STRATOCU CURRENTLY ACRS MN AND WI LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED/SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILES, BUT WOULD STILL THINK THEIR WILL BE SOME SCTRD FLURRIES OR
EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING UNDER
THE VORT MAX PASSAGE. BUT MORE OF A WEATHER STORY WILL BE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC LLVL FLOW AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN A CAA PATTERN DRIVING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED BEFORE THEY
START TO RELAX SOME LATE IN THE DAY. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WIND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER METHOD ON THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO NEAR
40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THESE TYPE OF WIND GUSTS
MIXED WITH A SNOW SHOWER COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FOR THE WED MORNING DRIVE.
AS FOR TEMPS, 12 HOUR LOW VALUES TONIGHT OCCURRING AT 12Z WED LOOK
TO BE WELL DOWN IN THE 20S, WITH WED HIGHS NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
FALLING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL GO WITH 12 HR HIGHS FOR WED JUST
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 12Z VALUES. WED MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH OF I-80. WED NIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING
WINDS
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MERIDIONAL, STEEP NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE
THE FLOW ALOFT TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE CONUS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW.
AFTER A COLD START, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HELP FROM BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AN BE GUSTY TO 25 MPH
ON THURSDAY.
THIS CLIPPER/DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION(WAA) SIDE OF THE WAVE.
THIS CLIPPER WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONTINUED VARIANCE
AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTICS OF AMOUNTS AND MOISTURE TO
UTILIZE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MAKE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE. MORE MODELS
SHOW AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND LESS TO THE WEST. THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES OF ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING BUT DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES WITH
THE ECWMF AND CMC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NBM FCST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND MAY EVEN BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC, EVEN AFTER TRENDING DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA TAF SITES THROUGH 12 UTC WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS
BETWEEN 8 AND 18 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY 00 UTC WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...COUSINS/12
AVIATION...ERVIN
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