850
FXUS63 KDVN 141055
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN CHANCE OF
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO FAIRFIELD
LINE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE EAST OF
EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 15 UTC WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SAME
TIME FRAME. LEFT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12 UTC ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
AFTER 12 UTC AS THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TO THE LOWER 30S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MERIDIONAL, STEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN PASSING SHORTWAVES
WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
AFTER A COLD START ON THURSDAY MORNING, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HELP FROM
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AN BE GUSTY TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY.
THIS CLIPPER/DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION(WAA) SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS CLIPPER WILL ALSO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONTINUED VARIANCE AMONG THE
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTICS OF AMOUNTS AND MOISTURE TO UTILIZE
FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MAKE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. MORE MODELS SHOW AN
INCH OR LESS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES OF
ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. NBM
FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND MAY
EVEN BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, EVEN AFTER TRENDING DOWN FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 15 UTC. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS THROUGH 18 UTC WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
06 UTC WHEN WINDS DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
VFR BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND KMLI AS LIGHT
FLURRIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 15 UTC.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY LIFT AFTER 15 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/12
AVIATION...COUSINS
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