949
FXUS63 KDVN 150913
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ARE 0.5
AND 1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- COLD WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- THE COLD AND ACTIVE CLIPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15 UTC
(9 AM CST). CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT CLIPPER AND VORT MAX MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER 30 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AS LIFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALL BELOW
FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SO SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGESTION THAT WILL BE A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS
ALOFT FOR AN HOUR OR TOO WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING TO ALL SNOW. OVERALL
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF AN INCH AND ONE INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THERE WERE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
SO INCLUDED THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW WITH A
COUPLE OF EDITS.
FRIDAY...THE LATEST VORT MAX ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A NICE WING OFF THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT FCST
SOUNDINGS, FOR THE DAY AND EVENING COULD BE INTERESTING AS THEY
DEVELOP STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BY AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY COULD MAKE FOR SOME FEISTY SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 40 MPH AND LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACUMM SWATHS INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SUPPORT FOR SOME
SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS IF CURRENT PARAMETERS ARE CORRECT. ALSO THE
DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB WILL MAKE THE MOST OF HIGH TEMP
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BUT THEN A LATE DAY FLOW/FETCH CHANGE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL COLD ADVECT FOR A LARGE DIURNAL CHILL
DOWN BY SAT MORNING. A QUICK LOOK AT QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN
A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A BELOW NORMAL COLD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS MAY BE
HELPED ON THE MILDER SIDE BY A PASSING CLIPPER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. IF THIS SYSTEM VERIFIES, WE MAY HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FOLLOWING COLD PUSH IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD RE-ENFORCNG AIR FLOWING DOWN ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
VALUES AGAIN LONG RANGE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF WE HAVE
ANY SNOW COVER FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME BELOW ZERO
TEMPS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE CLIPPER
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO EXTEND FOR MOST OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST,
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00 UTC
FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER 18 UTC BUT CURRENTLY
REMAIN VFR. PLACED A PROB30 AT EACH TAF SITE AFTER 00 UTC TO
ACCOUNT FOR SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...12/COUSINS
AVIATION...COUSINS
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