679
FXUS63 KDVN 152311
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
511 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A DUSTING TO NEAR 2" ARE POSSIBLE.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SUDDEN AND SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROADS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY; EXPECT SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION TONIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PLACE EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IN A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED HIGHER ON THE QPF FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AM WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10"+ POSSIBLE. COUNTIES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ OF SNOWFALL WITH WPC'S ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTION SHOWING 40-50%+ IN THIS AREA, AND LOWER CHANCES TO
THE WEST. THE MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM WILL BE
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
UNDER 1 MILE POSSIBLE IN THE STEADIEST SNOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE 30S TO THE
20S/TEENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LOW VALUES OF SBCAPE, AND THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER WELL WITHIN
THE DGZ. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER REACHING
2-4 DURING THE AFTERNOON (HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO- THIRDS
OF THE AREA), COINCIDENT WITH A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF
LOW- LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES.
AS MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING INTO
THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS INTO THE EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ICY ROADWAYS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. EXPECT
WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, AND VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES, OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A BELOW NORMAL COLD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY TEMPS MAY BE HELPED ON THE MILDER SIDE BY A PASSING
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. IF THIS SYSTEM VERIFIES, WE
MAY HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE FOLLOWING COLD PUSH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD RE-
ENFORCING AIR FLOWING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES AGAIN LONG RANGE THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF WE HAVE ANY SNOW COVER FOR MONDAY
NIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NBM MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK -- SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, POTENTIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY AM. GUSTY S TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WHILE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND NOT IN OUR TAF YET, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER STRONG
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE AREA.
THESE WOULD NOT LAST LONG AT ANY LOCATION, BUT COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW, AND IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...12/UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN
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