402
FXUS63 KDVN 161056
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
456 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEEN INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD FROM 1 TO 8 PM. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL HAVE BRIEF GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THAT WOULD
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEMS SIDE-SWIPING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE NEXT QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 8 AM
WITH AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 BEING FAVORED. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH.
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES. THE INTERESTING TIME PERIOD WILL BE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
BREAKS IN THE SUN WILL BUILD UP ENERGY POTENTIAL FOR THE VORT MAX TO
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHAT IS NOT FULLY KNOWN
YET WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR
STRONG SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD TURN INTO SNOW SQUALLS; NEGATIVE
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESPECTABLE THETA E GRADIENT.
INTERESTINGLY, THE 0-2 KM WINDS BRIEFLY DROP OFF TO 20 KNOTS BUT
THEN INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE STRONGER WINDS IN THE
0-2 KM LAYER TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS BUT THE THETA E
GRADIENT AND NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET
THE LOWER WINDS. RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW SQUALLS IS AROUND
30 PERCENT.
THE PRIME TIME PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 8 PM; SNOW
SQUALLS IF THEY OCCUR WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE 3 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO AROUND A MILE (POSSIBLY LESS) AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST ABOUT 10 MINUTES AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, COLD ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF SEEING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO
AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING. LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON SNOW
CHANCES.
THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
EITHER A CLIPPER SYSTEM OR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
EVERY 12-18 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO
BE DRY AND THE ENTIRE AREA LOOKS DRY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN HAS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF, CMC, ICON AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE A
SNOW POTENTIAL OVER MORE OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.
THE MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLES FROM THE EPS, GEPS AND ICON-EPS SUGGEST
MORE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. THE GEFS HAS A MAJORITY OF ITS MEMBERS
SHOWING DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT
NOW IS BEING BIASED TO THE DRIER GEFS. IT USUALLY TAKES SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO CATCH ON TO A CHANGING TREND.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MESSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO SEE WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW. THE LARGER
CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY EXCEED 20
BELOW ZERO ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND 10 TO 20 BELOW SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. WHILE A BIT EARLY THIS FAR OUT, THE PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR THE NEED OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE 30-40 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE ON MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THE TREND ON MODERATING TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS AT LEAST ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
VARIES GREATLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. A MAJORITY OF THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO DRY SO THE WEAK SIGNAL FOR SNOW
IS BEING LOST BY THE BACKGROUND ERROR NOISE. SO WHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS DRY, I CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA BEING FAVORED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
BAND OF -SN WILL EXIT EASTERN IOWA AND MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 14/16 BUT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AFTER
16Z/16 WIND GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS WITH CIGS INCREASING TO AROUND
3 KFT AGL. SHSN ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE 19Z/16 TO 02Z/17 TIME
FRAME BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE 20-35 PERCENT. THERE IS A HIGH
(>80%) PROBABILITY OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHSN AFTER
18Z/16. THE PROBABILITY OF BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IS 50 PERCENT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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