864
FXUS63 KDVN 162040
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING,
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE. GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BLOW AROUND ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
RESULTING IN FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO
THE AREA. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD A 996MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN
IOWA. WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
PUSHED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE
MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLD FRONT PUNCHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL INTO THE
20S AND TEENS INTO THE EVENING. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT; HOWEVER, WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE SOME AREAS WILL
LIKELY GET MISSED. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING AN
ORGANIZED, ALBEIT NARROW, BAND OF SNOW (A HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLL) OVER CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ADVECTING IT DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR WEST-CENTRAL/NW COUNTIES. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HEAVIER NARROW BAND OF
SNOW IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES, ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND DOWN TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND, BRIEF/SUDDEN VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO UNDER A HALF MILE ARE POSSIBLE AND ADDING TO THE
IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH! CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON WHETHER THE FEW NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL REACH SNOW
SQUALL INTENSITY LARGELY DUE TO MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY,
BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. AS
MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND
TEENS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ICY ROADWAYS.
EXPECT WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, AND VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES, OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SATURDAY: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 SATURDAY AM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER 500MB
VORTICITY MAX ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF BETWEEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO ~0.07" AND WITH SLRS BETWEEN 13-17:1,
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 TO ~1.5 INCHES,
HIGHEST NORTH OF I-80. THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS, LIKELY RESULTING IN SLICK
PAVEMENT/SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF SEEING
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN HAS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF, CMC, ICON AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE A
SNOW POTENTIAL OVER MORE OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.
THE MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLES FROM THE EPS, GEPS AND ICON-EPS SUGGEST
MORE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. THE GEFS HAS A MAJORITY OF ITS MEMBERS
SHOWING DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT
NOW IS BEING BIASED TO THE DRIER GEFS. IT USUALLY TAKES SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO CATCH ON TO A CHANGING TREND.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MESSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO SEE WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW. THE LARGER
CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY EXCEED 20
BELOW ZERO ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND 10 TO 20 BELOW SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. WHILE A BIT EARLY THIS FAR OUT, THE PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR THE NEED OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE 30-40 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE ON MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THE TREND ON MODERATING TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS AT LEAST ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
VARIES GREATLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. A MAJORITY OF THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO DRY SO THE WEAK SIGNAL FOR SNOW
IS BEING LOST BY THE BACKGROUND ERROR NOISE. SO WHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS DRY, I CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA BEING FAVORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH COVERAGE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE. A NARROW BAND OF
BRIEFLY MODERATE OR HEAVY SNOW MAY MOVE CLOSE TO CID LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND COULD BRING BRIEF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TOWARD DBQ AND CID, SO HAVE MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL IN
PROB30S.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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