458
FXUS63 KDVN 170828
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
228 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SATURDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW
ZERO.
- THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING HAS INCREASED
TO 70 PERCENT.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE WIDESPREAD FLURRIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, CLOUD
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY LIFT WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS
PRODUCING FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER. THIS WILL BE THE SCENARIO
THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY THE NEXT VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THE VORT
MAX ON SATELLITE IS IMPRESSIVE, AND LIKE YESTERDAY, WILL ROTATE
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW THROUGH THE AREA. THE SNOW LOOKS TO LAST 7-9
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ONLY
LASTING 4-6 HOURS. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE A DRY FLUFFY SNOW. WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE SNOW WILL CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
DRIFTING.
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 LOOK TO SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH
ONE HALF INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF I-80. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEEN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING WITH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEING DRY. BRISK
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
PROBABILITY IS HIGH (>70%) THAT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING AT OR BELOW ZERO IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS DISTURBANCE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS PRODUCE FLURRIES AT TIMES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE TREND WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAS ALSO BE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT MOVED FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE INFERRED LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY DRY
WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD TREND WITH ITS
TRACK, THEN SNOW CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
ALONG WITH THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF-
AIFS IS CONFIRMING THIS SUSPICION WITH FORECAST QPF AROUND 0.10
INCHES FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>70%) CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
COLDER THAN NORMAL
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AVERAGING COLDER THAN NORMAL.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND YET ANOTHER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AS DOES THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ICON-EPS WHICH HAS
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERATING LIGHT QPF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INTERESTINGLY, THE MEAN OF THE ECMWF-AIFS IS ALSO GENERATING SOME
LIGHT QPF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE RECENT DEPARTURE OF THE TUESDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE
AREA, THE DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
GENERATING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
AIR. THE THURSDAY DISTURBANCE WOULD HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
BEING DRY BUT WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA, ANY
WEAK LIFT WITH LOW CLOUDS PRESENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES OR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON TWO ADDITIONAL CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP.
THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW EACH SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ALONG WITH
TIMING IS DROPPING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BARELY ABOVE THE
BACKGROUND ERROR NOISE. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE MODELS WILL GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON STORM EVOLUTION AND TIMING. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP AND I SUSPECT THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH 12Z/17 AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
AFTER 12Z/17 A BAND OF SNOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BRINGING 6-9 HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. BY 00Z/18 THE SNOW WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
IOWA AND WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 06Z/18. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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