235
FXUS63 KDVN 172056
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO THE WORK WEEK,
WITH ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PM HOURS SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING
BY TUESDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE BITTERLY COLD,
WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW (70 TO
100% CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON). THE LATEST GOES-EAST
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE VERY WELL, WITH
ENHANCED 850-700 MB LAYER FGEN BANDING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA. WHILE SNOWFALL
RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
(LESS THAN 1/4 INCH/HOUR AND BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30, RESPECTIVELY), A SATURATED DGZ WITH DEPTHS OF 7000-
9000 FEET PER THE NAM AND RAP, ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE, SHOULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW ON NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS HAS CAUSED REDUCED VISIBILITIES, PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN, RURAL AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, COLD PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S PER LOCAL RWIS STATIONS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO
STICK, AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF SNOW ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID, WE
WILL CONTINUE OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. IF TRAVEL
IMPACTS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, THE SPS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY.
A LULL IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BRIEFLY DEVELOPS TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT UNDER
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE SUNDAY PM HOURS, WITH MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW (30-
60%). MOST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS,
WITH THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW REMAINING DRY AND FLUFFY. SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS LOOK
TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW, GUSTING TO AROUND
30 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL, OPEN AREAS,
AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD IN THE WAKE OF
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS - BOTH
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN -15 TO -30 DEGREES. THE LATEST HREF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIND CHILLS OF 20
BELOW, WITH EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF THESE VALUES BETWEEN 70 TO
100% FOR MOST OF THE CWA (ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92). WITH SUCH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE CWA FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY, SO CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
COLD, AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MODERATING BY TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ONLY
INCREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONCERNED, THE ONLY SYSTEM
WE SEE ON THE HORIZON DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
AS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THIS SCENARIO, AND AS SUCH, THE NBM HAS PRECIP CHANCES BETWEEN 10
TO 40 PERCENT - HIGHEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. OTHER THAN THAT, NOT SEEING ANY OTHER SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND UP
TO 2 INCHES, RESPECTIVELY), THE DRY, FLUFFY CHARACTER OF THE
SNOW, COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
SHOULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 2SM OR
LESS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON,
WITH SOME ISOLATED LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW.
EVENTUALLY, THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING, AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ067-
068-078.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015-016-024.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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