625
FXUS63 KDVN 181052
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
452 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEEN MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW.
- DANGEROUS COLD WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
QUIET BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID-MORNING AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO A GOOD CHUNK OF AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
LIKE YESTERDAY THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW
OCCURRING 3-7 HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING FOR
ABOUT 3 HOURS. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY THE SNOW WILL BE THE DRY FLUFFY
TYPE.
AREAS IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 0.5 TO 1 INCH DOWN TO I-80. SOUTH OF I-80
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING ARE EXPECTED.
ABOUT THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGED A VERY RESPECTABLE PRESSURE RISE SO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A JUMP IN WIND
SPEEDS.
THE MID-EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE BRUTAL. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE SEEN AS THE COLD AIR
RUSHES INTO THE AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH
OF A SIGOURNEY, IA TO ALEDO, IL LINE WITH 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO SOUTH
OF THAT LINE. AS A RESULT, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TUESDAY
COLD BEST DESCRIBES MONDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE
SEEN DURING THE MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR
BELOW ZERO FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SUBTLE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING.
IF THERE ARE ANY LOW CLOUDS PRESENT THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF SNEEZING FLURRIES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES HIGHER BUT KEEP THEM BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>70%) CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK AND TONIGHT THE TRACKS ARE EITHER THE SAME OR A
SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTH. WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THAT SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC
RUNS NOW HAVE A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS NOT THE
CASE 24 HOURS AGO.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY HAS 20-30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS DUE TO MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS
REMAINING DRY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THE ECMWF-AIFS CONTINUES TO
TICK UPWARD WITH IS 6 HOUR QPF AND THE PROJECTED QPF FAVORS THE
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO I
SUSPECT THAT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE UPWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER DRY
FLUFFY SNOW EVENT, A ROUGH ESTIMATE THIS FAR OUT IS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS
TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO POTENTIALLY AN INCH OR TWO.
THE BIGGER MESSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE WINDS. ANOTHER
POTENT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF WINDY CONDITIONS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DOES NOT YET SHOW THIS BUT IT USUALLY LAGS ON THE WIND
RAMP UP, ESPECIALLY IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION SITUATIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES PLACE ANY CLOUDS IN
THE FAVORABLE GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED. INDEED, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW
STARTING TO CATCH ON TO THIS SCENARIO AND HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THUSDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<30%) CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES
THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK IN
REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UKMET/GFS BRING A SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF/CMC HAVE NO SYSTEM WHILE THE ICON MODEL SUGGESTS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RELATED AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CANADA BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE
THE QUICKEST WHICH PUSHES THE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. INTERESTINGLY, THE ECMWF-AIFS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THE
AIGFS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN WISCONSIN.
AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS, THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE
BIASED TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS.
SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<30%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE KEY TO SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE THAT
A 1040+ HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD DOWN INTO THE PLAINS BUT DIFFER
ON THE TIMING. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SATURDAY AS DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MEMBERS OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
RUNS THAT HAVE THE ARCTIC HIGH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WHICH ALLOWS
A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND VFR
CONDITIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. AFTER
17Z/18 CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN SNOW. THE
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN EASTERN IOWA JUST BEFORE 00Z/19 AND WILL
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 06Z/19. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ067-
068-078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MOZ009-
010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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