691
FXUS63 KDVN 190548
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1148 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH OVERNIGHT,
SPORADICALLY HIGHER BEFORE 3 A.M.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
WARM ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT AS OF 1 PM, DRY AIR HAS KEPT THE "ROUND 1 OF 2" LIMITED TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW. OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IMPACT AT
ALL WITH THIS INITIAL BAND IN EASTERN IOWA, AND THAT PROBABLY
WILL RESULT IN OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS COMING IN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THIS EVENT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING,
"ROUND 2" IN THE FORM OF FGEN FORCED SNOW AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA,
WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT BLOWING SNOW COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA,
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF EXISTING MOVABLE SNOW AND LOWERED AMOUNTS FROM
TODAY'S FORECAST COULD GREATLY REDUCE HOW WIDESPREAD OF A HAZARD
THAT IS. WE'D ALREADY HELD OFF ON AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LAST
NIGHT, AND AS OF THIS ISSUANCE, WE'RE STILL HOLDING OFF ON THAT
HAZARD, AS THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES, STILL LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST 1-2 HOURS BEHIND THE END OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOVABLE SNOW, WE'RE THINKING AN SPS AND GRAPHICAST
FOR STRONG WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS THE BEST ROUTE, VS A
HEADLINE.
SPEAKING OF HEADLINES... THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY OUR FORECAST, AS VERY COLD AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHILE WINDS REMAIN HIGH, IN THE
20-35 MPH RANGE INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE -15 TO -30 RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THANKFULLY,
SCHOOLS ARE GENERALLY NOT IN SESSION DUE TO THE MLK HOLIDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW COMING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
CLIPPER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 ONCE AGAIN, BUT
THESE ALWAYS NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A SLIGHT CHANGE IN PATH.
GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER DRY FLUFFY SNOW EVENT, A ROUGH
ESTIMATE THIS FAR OUT IS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO POTENTIALLY AN INCH OR TWO.
ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING, AND ANOTHER ARRIVING IN THE LATE
PM. THE COLD TEMPERATURES PLACE ANY CLOUDS IN THE FAVORABLE GROWTH
ZONE FOR SNOW SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED.
INDEED, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO THIS
SCENARIO AND HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THUSDAY ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ASSESSMENT...LOW (<30%)
CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK IN
REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UKMET/GFS BRING A SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF/CMC HAVE NO SYSTEM WHILE THE ICON MODEL SUGGESTS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RELATED AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CANADA BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE
THE QUICKEST WHICH PUSHES THE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. INTERESTINGLY, THE ECMWF-AIFS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THE
AIGFS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN WISCONSIN.
AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS, THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE
BIASED TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS.
SATURDAY ASSESSMENT...LOW (<30%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE KEY TO SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE THAT
A 1040+ HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD DOWN INTO THE PLAINS BUT DIFFER
ON THE TIMING. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SATURDAY AS DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MEMBERS OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
RUNS THAT HAVE THE ARCTIC HIGH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WHICH ALLOWS
A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH AVIATION IS WINDS, WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AREA-WIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING DURING THE DAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 40 KT WILL OCCUR AT EASTERN IOWA AIRPORTS THROUGH 09Z OR SO.
THERE IS LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD FADE BY
DAYBREAK. SHALLOW BLOWING SNOW AT RURAL AIRFIELDS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE NORTH OF I-80, MIGHT LINGER AFTER DAYBREAK BUT WITH LITTLE
INHERENT SNOW ON THE GROUND TO BE BLOWN, VISIBILITIES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN MVFR WHERE THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING. MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE FADING. THESE TYPES OF CLOUDS IN
STRONG COLD AIR LIKE THIS TEND TO BE SO THIN THAT THEY ARE
ALMOST TRANSLUCENT IN THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>066-076-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ067-
068-078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MOZ009-
010.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/08
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
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