836
FXUS63 KDVN 191104
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
504 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY AND BITTERLY COLD MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS OF THE SEASON
SO FAR (15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO); COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
- SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AT COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO CREATE SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS.
- EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING SOME HIGHS ONLY AROUND
ZERO, BECOMING PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A FRIGID START TO THIS MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY WITH STRONG
(AND LOUD) NORTHWEST WINDS LAST NIGHT HAVING USHERED IN SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES AND -15 TO -30 WIND CHILLS (COLDEST NORTH). AS IS
COMMON IN THESE WINTERTIME STRONG COLD ADVECTION SCENARIOS, THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL 8 TO 10 AM WITH
THEN A SLOW CLIMB AFTER. SOME MORNING WIND CHILLS ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY DIP TO BELOW -30F, BUT FEEL THE ADVISORY
HEADLINE CAPTURES THIS SITUATION WELL. WIND GUSTS AFTER DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE MORE COMMONLY PEAKING AT 35 MPH ANALYZING UPSTREAM
VWP DATA AND TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER DATA ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN MORE SHARPLY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO BE AROUND -25C TODAY (BOTTOM 5TH PERCENTILE FOR JANUARY
USING OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY), HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REBOUND TO 5
TO 15 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THEY WOULD REBOUND FAR LESS THAN
THAT IF WE HAD SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE OF FRESH SNOW COVER!
TONIGHT WILL BE 'MILDER' AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES
OVER WITH A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM A
SHEARED, WEAK IMPULSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VIRGA
OUT OF THAT DECK. OTHERWISE, LOWS A SMIDGE BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORTH ARE EXPECTED WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
ZOOMING OUT BIG PICTURE, THE HEMISPHERIC SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS
MAPS PAINT A CLEAR PICTURE OF ENTRENCHED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION, WITH REINFORCING COLD SHOTS. THE
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALMOST THE WIDTH OF
THE CONTINENT AND AS FAR EQUATORWARD AS THE MID SOUTH. LAST
NIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDINGS HAD NORTHERLY FLOW FROM 850 MB UPWARD FROM
OUR SOUNDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA'S SOUNDINGS. WHAT ALL THIS
MEANS IS THAT THIS WILL BE A TOUGH PATTERN TO SHAKE IN THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS, IF NOT LONGER, AND THE REGION IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
COLDER AIR SHOTS. THE ACTIVE ZONE OF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION-
MAKING SYSTEMS OF NOTE WILL TEND TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER LOWER AMPLITUDE LIGHT SNOW MAKERS, ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS WITH COLD AND WINDS, WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THESE AND SPECIFIC TRACKS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE THREE PLUS DAYS
OUT.
BUILDING ON THAT LAST POINT, THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE IS CLOSE
ENOUGH IN THE FORECAST BEING TUESDAY NIGHT TO DECIPHER SOME
DETAILS. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE HONED THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACK
TO BE OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA HEADED EAST-SOUTHEAST. AS IS COMMON
WITH CLIPPERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND ITS LONGER DURATION ARE BETTER NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER
TRACK, SO OUR NORTHERN CWA IS MOST FAVORED IN THIS CASE. AT
LEAST A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT DEPTH IS
COLLOCATED WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ), AND THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST TRANSIENT F-GEN ALONG THE 850-700 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE OVER/NEAR
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS ALL INDICATES TEMPORARY MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL SCATTERED 2+ INCH AMOUNTS NEAR U.S.
HIGHWAY 20 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO BE 8 PM TO 4 AM OR SO, THAT GENERALLY FALLS IN A LESS
IMPACTFUL TIME, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS.
BEYOND THAT, DETAILS IN ANY CLIPPERS ARE MORE MUDDY, HOWEVER THE
TEMPERATURE DETAILS HAVE BECOME CLEARER (AND COLDER!). FIRST
FOR PRECIPITATION, THE TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN LESS OF A SIGNAL OF CLIPPERS OF NOTE, OR FOR ANY
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION CONCERNS (THAT HAS SHIFTED WELL
SOUTH). TO EXPRESS THAT, THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.1 INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY ARE
LOWER THAN 20 PERCENT. NOW FOR TEMPERATURES, AS ALREADY NOTED THE
BACKGROUND PATTERN SUPPORTS COLD REINFORCEMENT AND THAT IS
EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS. A PRONOUNCED 500 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO
CARVE INTO THE TROUGH WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST 3-4 SIGMA BELOW
NORMAL OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
(IMPRESSIVE FOR THE COLDEST TIME OF YEAR). THAT WILL RESULT IN
AN ARCTIC FRONT SOMETIME ON OR AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS.
TOUGH TO TELL IF IT WOULD COME WITH AS MUCH WIND FANFARE AS
LAST NIGHT'S ARCTIC FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
NOT DUE TO LESS BAROCLINICITY. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR BEHIND IT
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF A STOUT
1040+ MB SETTLES IN NEARBY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE -25C TO -30C (BOTTOM FEW PERCENTILE
FOR JANUARY), IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BASED ON NBM
PROBABILITY TRENDS THAT NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS, AND HIGHS
BOTH DAYS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE IF EVEN ABOVE
ZERO, ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE SOME SNOW COVER SHOULD EXIST. ON
THE SNOW COVER NOTE, SOME MODEL MEMBERSHIP IN THE NBM CAN
STRUGGLE WITH THAT, AND SOME MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS
PROBABLE. BUT EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT END UP AS COLD AS
DETERMINISTICALLY FORECAST NOW, THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR IS A
KEY MESSAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TODAY, ESPECIALLY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT WILL
OCCUR THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY OF SEEING BRIEF
FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE THIN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
LAYER. THESE TYPES OF CLOUDS IN STRONG COLD AIR LIKE THIS TEND
TO BE SO THIN THAT THEY ARE ALMOST TRANSLUCENT. SO IT'S LOW
CONFIDENCE WHEN SPECIFICALLY THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL END, BUT
WOULD EXPECT SOMETIME LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE SIGNAL HAS STRENGTHENED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING THE NEXT TEN DAYS, INCLUDING A COUPLE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD BOUTS OF SUBZERO AIR -- THE CURRENT ONE AND
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ICE HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ON
SOME AREA RIVERS IN THE LAST 48 HOURS, INCLUDING THE LOWER ROCK
RIVER. MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT AND AT AN EVEN QUICKER RATE WILL BE
FAVORED DURING THE COLDEST STRETCHES, AND COULD SUPPORT SOME
FREEZE UP JAMS ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LOWER
ROCK. STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR
JANUARY (I.E. NEAR THE LONG TERM NORMAL). IF THEY WERE HIGHER,
THAT WOULD REALLY RAISE CONCERNS RIGHT NOW. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
MORE HONED IN MESSAGING AND FLOOD WARNINGS IF WE RECEIVE
SPECIFIC REPORTS OF DEVELOPING IMPACTFUL ICE JAMS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...FRIEDLEIN
LONG TERM...FRIEDLEIN
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
HYDROLOGY...FRIEDLEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page