019
FXUS63 KDVN 192327
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NORTH, BUT WITH FAR LESS WIND, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS
GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE -20F.
- SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AT COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD
CONDITIONS.
- EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING SOME HIGHS ONLY AROUND ZERO,
BECOMING PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
PRIOR TO NOON, WINDY CONDITIONS REMAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO, MEANWHILE, SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS WERE PASSING THROUGH IN NARROW STRIPES OF LOW CLOUDS,
LIKELY THE REMAINING HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS FROM THE UPSTREAM
BLIZZARD YESTERDAY. AFTER NOON SO FAR, WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
IOWA THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN QUICKLY DROPPING WINDS AND WITH ANY
CLEAR SKIES, WE'LL DROP BACK NEAR ZERO. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE
OF AURORA, BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM, MID CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
IN THE DAKOTAS, AND SHOULD ARRIVE NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET, THUS,
BEYOND THE COLD TEMPERATURES, THESE MAY KEEP US FROM HAVING A
VIEWING OF THE POTENTIAL AURORA, AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, WHEN
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AGAIN.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT, AND AT MOST HOURS,
UNDER 6 MPH, THUS WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY BE -20 OR COLDER IN THE
NORTH ON A PATCHY LEVEL, WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD VALUES OF ZERO TO
-10.
TUESDAY, INITIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE DECENT
HEATING OF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, AND HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH TO LOWER 20S NORTH. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
HAVING NO SNOW COVER SOUTH, WHILE THE NORTH HAS 1-3 INCHES.
AN APPROACHING ZONAL TRACK CLIPPER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WISCONSIN. THE TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER HAS SHIFTED NORTH IN NEARLY ALL CAMS, WHILE REMAINING
SOUTH ON THE EC AND TO THE LESSER DEGREE, THE GFS. THE NBM IS
REMAINING IN THE CHANCE TO LOWER END LIKELY (30-60% RANGE),
WHILE THE FORCING SUGGESTING 80%+ IN THE NORTH. I'VE INCREASED
POPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FOR THIS REASON, WHILE KEEPING THE
LOWER %S NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH. IN ALL, THE FAR NORTH COULD BE 1-3
INCHES ON THIS EVENT, WHILE SOUTH OF THAT, MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED AS SATURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE EVENT, AND AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO 1 INCH IS MOST
LIKELY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, MUCH OF THE SATURATED LIFT IN
MODELS THAT DO HAVE SNOW, SHOW IT IN THE DGZ, THUS, THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE RATHER FLUFFY IN NATURE, AND ACCUMULATE EASILY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
ZOOMING OUT BIG PICTURE, THE HEMISPHERIC SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS MAPS
PAINT A CLEAR PICTURE OF ENTRENCHED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REGION, WITH REINFORCING COLD SHOTS. THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALMOST THE WIDTH OF THE CONTINENT AND AS FAR
EQUATORWARD AS THE MID SOUTH. LAST NIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDINGS HAD
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM 850 MB UPWARD FROM OUR SOUNDING THROUGH NORTHERN
CANADA'S SOUNDINGS. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THIS WILL BE A TOUGH
PATTERN TO SHAKE IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, IF NOT LONGER, AND THE
REGION IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLDER AIR SHOTS. THE ACTIVE ZONE OF
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION- MAKING SYSTEMS OF NOTE WILL TEND TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER LOWER AMPLITUDE LIGHT SNOW MAKERS, ENOUGH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH COLD AND WINDS, WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST.
TIMING OF THESE AND SPECIFIC TRACKS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE THREE PLUS
DAYS OUT.
BEYOND THAT, DETAILS IN ANY CLIPPERS ARE MORE MUDDY, HOWEVER THE
TEMPERATURE DETAILS HAVE BECOME CLEARER (AND COLDER!). FIRST FOR
PRECIPITATION, THE TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
LESS OF A SIGNAL OF CLIPPERS OF NOTE, OR FOR ANY OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS (THAT HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH). TO EXPRESS
THAT, THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR A
24 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY ARE LOWER THAN 20 PERCENT. NOW
FOR TEMPERATURES, AS ALREADY NOTED THE BACKGROUND PATTERN SUPPORTS
COLD REINFORCEMENT AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS. A PRONOUNCED
500 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO CARVE INTO THE TROUGH WITH HEIGHTS
FORECAST 3-4 SIGMA BELOW NORMAL OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES (IMPRESSIVE FOR THE COLDEST TIME OF YEAR). THAT
WILL RESULT IN AN ARCTIC FRONT SOMETIME ON OR AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT
IT APPEARS. TOUGH TO TELL IF IT WOULD COME WITH AS MUCH WIND
FANFARE AS LAST NIGHT'S ARCTIC FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WOULD NOT DUE TO LESS BAROCLINICITY. HOWEVER, THE COLD
AIR BEHIND IT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OF A STOUT 1040+ MB SETTLES IN NEARBY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE -25C TO -30C
(BOTTOM FEW PERCENTILE FOR JANUARY), IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
BASED ON NBM PROBABILITY TRENDS THAT NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS, AND HIGHS BOTH DAYS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
IF EVEN ABOVE ZERO, ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE SOME SNOW COVER
SHOULD EXIST. ON THE SNOW COVER NOTE, SOME MODEL MEMBERSHIP IN
THE NBM CAN STRUGGLE WITH THAT, AND SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
ARCTIC AIR IS PROBABLE. BUT EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT END UP
AS COLD AS DETERMINISTICALLY FORECAST NOW, THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE COLDEST TIME OF THE
YEAR IS A KEY MESSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL VISIBILITY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
ON THE ROCK RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF JOSLIN, OR MORE PROPER,
NEAR THE RAILROAD BRIDGE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE I-80
BRIDGE, CONTINUES TO HAVE A ICE FORMATION RELATED ICE JAM BEING
REPORTED. THIS JAM HAS BROUGHT ELEVATED STAGES AT JOSLIN, AND A
REPORT OF JUST OUT OF BANK FLOODING NEAR CLEVELAND IL. AT THIS
TIME, WE'RE CONSIDERING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA OF THE ROCK
RIVER.
THE SIGNAL HAS STRENGTHENED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING THE NEXT TEN DAYS, INCLUDING A COUPLE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD BOUTS OF SUBZERO AIR -- THE CURRENT ONE AND
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ICE HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ON
SOME AREA RIVERS IN THE LAST 48 HOURS, INCLUDING THE LOWER ROCK
RIVER. MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT AND AT AN EVEN QUICKER RATE WILL BE
FAVORED DURING THE COLDEST STRETCHES, AND COULD SUPPORT SOME
FREEZE UP JAMS ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LOWER
ROCK. STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR
JANUARY (I.E. NEAR THE LONG TERM NORMAL). IF THEY WERE HIGHER,
THAT WOULD REALLY RAISE CONCERNS RIGHT NOW. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
MORE HONED IN MESSAGING AND FLOOD WARNINGS IF WE RECEIVE
SPECIFIC REPORTS OF DEVELOPING IMPACTFUL ICE JAMS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/FRIEDLEIN
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...ERVIN/FRIEDLEIN
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