107
FXUS63 KDVN 030924
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS, INTO THE 30S AND 40S, EXPECTED BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPED LAST
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
AREAS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH 3 AM. MID-LEVEL
(700-600MB) FGEN RESPONSE INTERSECTING A SATURATED DGZ, COUPLED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, RESULTED IN A WELL DEVELOPED
NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH SLRS AROUND 20:1. THE HIGHEST REPORT
AS OF 130 AM WAS 2 INCHES IN LOWDEN, AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR TO THE ESE (PORTIONS OF CLINTON, NE ROCK
ISLAND, SOUTHERN WHITESIDE, AND INTO NORTHERN BUREAU COUNTIES)
WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL REACH 2-3 INCHES BY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SNOW BAND AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 ALONG I-80 AND LOWER 30S IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WEDNESDAY... LOOKING TO A DRY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
NORTH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN MAXIMIZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A STRONG NW-SE ORIENTED JET STREAK WILL
ADVECT DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A
DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND ACCORDING
TO THE LREF, THERE IS A 90% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ABOVE FREEZING EITHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS TREND COMES TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, RETURNING THE CWA TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH; NBM POPS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER 10%.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
MODELS OF A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND, ALLOWING FOR
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NBM HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT CID EARLY ON
IN THIS TAF PERIOD, LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW REACHING AS FAR SOUTH
AS MLI SO HAVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL IN A PROB30 FOR NOW. AS THE
SNOW EXISTS TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
INTO TUESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...CD/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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