843
FXUS63 KDVN 040605
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1205 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN, NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS.
- A BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. A QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SUN BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CREATE
MORE OF A FILTERED SUN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL, THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES
ALL MODELS SHOW WAA OCCURRING ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE CLOUDS.
THE UNKNOWN IS WHETHER OR NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
PRECIPITATION CAN BE GENERATED VIA A SEEDER/FEEDER MECHANISM. IF THE
CURRENT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE A CLUE, THEN LOW CLOUDS
WOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE MORE PROBABLE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, BUT, IF ICE
ALOFT IS LOST THEN THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD
INCREASE.
THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, ECMWF-AIFS DOES SHOW SOME VERY
LIGHT QPF OVERSPREADING INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY, AND, COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
WEEKS WILL SEEM QUITE WARM.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
THE SECOND SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WING OF WAA THAT WILL SIDE-
SWIPE THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF-AIFS SHOWS THIS QUITE
NICELY BY PAINTING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH SOME LOW QPF. BASED ON
THIS WE HAVE GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF A
DUBUQUE, IA TO PRINCETON, IL LINE.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CELLS. THE SIGNAL FOR THIS IS QUITE WEAK THIS FAR OUT AND IF IT DOES
OCCUR, AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WOULD BE FAVORED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE OF A PRONOUNCED
WARM-UP
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MJO IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE WITH EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WARM-UP OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF WARM-UP HAS
UNCERTAINTY TIED TO IT DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING A SUSTAINED WARM-UP WITH A
BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A BUILDING THERMAL
RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SIGNAL INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. THUS WHILE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD
CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY, FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION.
TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (10-20%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION. HIGH
(70-80%) CONFIDENCE ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN FLUX OVER THE WEEKEND, THE GLOBAL
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POTENTIAL
TRACK, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA.
WHERE THE MODELS DO AGREE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD
LOW-LEVEL VISIBILITY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH
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