894
FXUS63 KDVN 041145
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN, NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS.
- A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE 500MB VORT. MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, BUT
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE TEENS.
THURSDAY: THE MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE DRY DURING THE MORNING WITH
THE EC BEING A NOTABLE EXCEPTION, PAINTING LIGHT QPF ALONG/EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (BETWEEN 0.01 - 0.05"). FOR NOW, THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD A DRIER SCENARIO BUT
SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AS PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
COULD BRUSH THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE
IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
LOSS OF IN-CLOUD ICE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO LOW/MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WING OF WAA THAT
WILL SIDE- SWIPE THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF-AIFS
SHOWS THIS QUITE NICELY BY PAINTING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH SOME
LOW QPF. BASED ON THIS WE HAVE GONE WITH 15-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA TO PRINCETON, IL LINE. THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE SIGNAL FOR THIS IS QUITE WEAK THIS FAR OUT AND IF IT DOES
OCCUR, AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WOULD BE FAVORED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (70-90%) CONFIDENCE OF A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MJO IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE WITH EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WARM-UP OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF WARM-UP HAS
UNCERTAINTY TIED TO IT DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING A SUSTAINED WARM-UP WITH A
BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A BUILDING THERMAL
RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SIGNAL INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. THUS WHILE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD
CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY, FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION.
TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION. HIGH (70-90%)
CONFIDENCE ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN FLUX OVER THE WEEKEND, THE GLOBAL
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS/CMC ARE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THE EC HAS A
SYSTEM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WED. NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NBM POPS ARE IN THE 20-40% RANGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP THIS FAR OUT. WHERE THE
MODELS DO AGREE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR, LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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