457
FXUS63 KDVN 050608
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1208 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR.
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMMENCES
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD FOR THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM. THE WAA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MORE DENSE COLD
AIR ALOFT. THIS MOISTURE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SEEDER/FEEDER
MECHANISM FURTHER ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLURRIES OR AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
ON THURSDAY THE FIRST OF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED AS SEVERAL BANDS OF
STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES AT
LEAST FLURRIES SHOULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A BELLE PLAINE, IA TO
GALESBURG, IL LINE. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF A MANCHESTER, IA
TO KEWANEE, IL LINE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND ACCUMULATION IS EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA
TO PRINCETON, IL LINE. ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SPOTTY WITH THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT LIKELY BEING A DUSTING.
THE LAST OF THE FORCING AND LIFT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND HELP SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS PROG THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SO PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT LESS OF
THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THERE ARE INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE
MODELS THAT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SIGNAL IS STILL WEAK BUT
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY BE INTERSPERSED
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
AND ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUDS IS LOST.
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BOOST WINDS AND RESULT IN A
WINDY AND COLD DAY EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE OF A PRONOUNCED
WARM-UP
ALL GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE NEARLY GUARANTEES
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE AMOUNT ABOVE NORMAL, SADLY,
IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO HOW THE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES IN THE HIGHER
LATITUDES.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO A PROGGED SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THUS ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD MARK
THE PASSAGE OF EACH DISTURBANCE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (10-20%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION. HIGH
(70-80%) CONFIDENCE ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
WHICH RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO DRY AS IS THE ECMWF-AIFS.
INTERESTINGLY, THE AIGFS, SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AND A FEW
MEMBERS OF THE EPS DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE AIGFS
BEING THE HEAVIEST.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ONLY HAVE
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE GULF, THE RETURN FLOW IS WEAK AND THE MOISTURE FLOW IS
BEING SHUNTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THE POSITION OF THESE
FEATURES REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE
RAIN CHANCES HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DECREASING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LEADING TO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AM. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED BY MID/LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT CID/MLI/BRL, AND THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT DBQ WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN
A PROB30.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH
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