615
FXUS63 KDVN 051732
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE CHANCES
FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES.
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
TODAY: PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES THIS MORNING AS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALL-IN-ALL IT WILL BE A QUIET DAY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH "MILD" CONDITIONS AS HIGHS REACH THE
MID 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 F ALONG I-80 AND LOW/MID 40S TO
THE SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT, TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK TO TODAY'S SYSTEM.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR EASTERN OUTLOOK AREA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE STEADIER PRECIP. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SOME
LIGHT QPF ARE EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO PRINCETON, IL LINE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SATURATION AT
OR COLDER THAN -10 C, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED OR UNTREATED SURFACES.
MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL GET MISSED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE HIGHER QPF (0.05-0.10"+) EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 F TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE E/NE OUTLOOK AREA.
IT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (SOUTH) BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER. CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A PRONOUNCED WARM- UP FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY
ALL GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE NEARLY GUARANTEES
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST NBM HAS 20S/30S
ON SATURDAY, 30S/40S SUNDAY, AND 40S/50S ON MONDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO A PROGGED SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THUS ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD MARK
THE PASSAGE OF EACH DISTURBANCE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (10-20%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
WHICH RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A NEW LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NBM HAS
PRECIP CHANCES BETWEEN 20-40% FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC ENSEMBLE 24
HR PROBABILITIES FOR 0.10"+ OF QPF HIGHLIGHTS THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A POTENTIAL WINDOW FOR A
STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
IT DOES LOOK TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST, LEADING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO GET PULLED NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SMALL POCKET OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THAT IS SLOWLY
SHRINKING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN FAR
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 06Z/06. HIGH (>80%)
PROBABILITY OF A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN MVFR CONDITIONS. KDBQ IS ON THE EDGE
OF THIS RISK AND HAS A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. AFTER 12Z/06 WINDS WILL INCREASE POST COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08/UTTECH
AVIATION...08
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