065
FXUS63 KDVN 051949
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
149 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A RISK OF A WINTRY MIX
OR EVEN FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG/EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA TO
PRINCETON, IL LINE.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
- THE PRONOUNCED WARM-UP IS STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WARM IT
WILL GET.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW
CENTER. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSAGE TO
HELP GENERATE PRECIPITATION. A BIG CONCERN IS THAT DEW POINTS WILL
BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES WHICH IS IN THE FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL OUTPUT DOES INDICATE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AND TRENDS FROM THE HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FREEZING RAIN SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE HREF AND NBM LOOK TO BE UNDERDONE REGARDING THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT THERE ARE 20-25% OF THEIR MEMBERS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
THE INTERESTING TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO PRINCETON, IL. AT ANY ONE
LOCATION EAST OF THIS LINE THERE IS A RISK OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION
FOR A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH SO ANY UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS/PARKING LOTS
WOULD BECOME QUITE SLICK.
THIS THEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF HEADLINES. GIVEN THE LOW NUMBER OF
MEMBERS FROM THE HREF/NBM INDICATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION, WE'RE
SITTING AROUND A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FOR A HEADLINE. THUS FOR NOW
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AND GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING VIA AN
SPS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HEADLINE, IT MAY BE MORE OF
A TACTICAL ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT BASED ON HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES.
THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM PRE-DAWN TO THE END
OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL DELAY
THE START OF THE WELL ADVERTISED WARM-UP UNTIL SUNDAY. ONCE SUNDAY
ARRIVES TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER EACH DAY. THE SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS ALSO MEANS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. THE
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THEIR PASSAGE WILL ONLY BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW (15-25%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME DRY AS DOES THE ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLES,
THE NUMBER OF MEMBERS FROM EACH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING
PRECIPITATION HAVE COME DOWN WHICH WAS EXPECTED GIVEN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF IS EITHER CUT OFF OR BEING ROUTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BASED ON LOW LEVEL FLOW. I FULLY EXPECTED A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS TREND OF FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION IS NOW
BEING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY IS ALMOST PRECIPITATION
FREE WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-80.
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HANDLING TWO
POTENTIAL SYSTEMS AROUND MID-WEEK HAVE RESULTED IN A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE POPS
ARE 5-10 PERCENT LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SMALL POCKET OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THAT IS SLOWLY
SHRINKING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN FAR
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 06Z/06. HIGH (>80%)
PROBABILITY OF A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN MVFR CONDITIONS. KDBQ IS ON THE EDGE
OF THIS RISK AND HAS A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. AFTER 12Z/06 WINDS WILL INCREASE POST COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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