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FXUS63 KDVN 060119
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
719 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A RISK OF A WINTRY MIX
OR EVEN FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG/EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA TO
PRINCETON, IL LINE.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
- THE PRONOUNCED WARM-UP IS STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WARM IT
WILL GET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, IT'S WORTH
NOTING THE HRRR, CURRENT RADAR, AND 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE HEADED A BIT
FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z DATA/FORECAST SHOWED. THIS LARGELY
MEANS WE COULD BE DRY IN ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST STEPHENSON
COUNTY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. I'LL AWAIT ADDITIONAL 00Z
DATA, BUT THIS MAY REQUIRE LOWERING POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST 1/2 BY
20-30% BY A MID EVENING UPDATE. AGAIN, THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z MODEL SUPPORT IF AN UPDATE OF THAT
MAGNITUDE ROLES OUT. THIS AFD UPDATE IS BEING SENT TO SHOW AN
APPARENT TREND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW
CENTER. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSAGE TO
HELP GENERATE PRECIPITATION. A BIG CONCERN IS THAT DEW POINTS WILL
BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES WHICH IS IN THE FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL OUTPUT DOES INDICATE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AND TRENDS FROM THE HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FREEZING RAIN SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE HREF AND NBM LOOK TO BE UNDERDONE REGARDING THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT THERE ARE 20-25% OF THEIR MEMBERS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
THE INTERESTING TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO PRINCETON, IL. AT ANY ONE
LOCATION EAST OF THIS LINE THERE IS A RISK OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION
FOR A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH SO ANY UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS/PARKING LOTS
WOULD BECOME QUITE SLICK.
THIS THEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF HEADLINES. GIVEN THE LOW NUMBER OF
MEMBERS FROM THE HREF/NBM INDICATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION, WE'RE
SITTING AROUND A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FOR A HEADLINE. THUS FOR NOW
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AND GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING VIA AN
SPS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HEADLINE, IT MAY BE MORE OF
A TACTICAL ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT BASED ON HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES.
THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM PRE-DAWN TO THE END
OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL DELAY
THE START OF THE WELL ADVERTISED WARM-UP UNTIL SUNDAY. ONCE SUNDAY
ARRIVES TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER EACH DAY. THE SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS ALSO MEANS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. THE
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THEIR PASSAGE WILL ONLY BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW (15-25%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME DRY AS DOES THE ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLES,
THE NUMBER OF MEMBERS FROM EACH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING
PRECIPITATION HAVE COME DOWN WHICH WAS EXPECTED GIVEN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF IS EITHER CUT OFF OR BEING ROUTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BASED ON LOW LEVEL FLOW. I FULLY EXPECTED A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS TREND OF FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION IS NOW
BEING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY IS ALMOST PRECIPITATION
FREE WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-80.
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HANDLING TWO
POTENTIAL SYSTEMS AROUND MID-WEEK HAVE RESULTED IN A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE POPS
ARE 5-10 PERCENT LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
AS OF 23Z AND SHOULD BE LEADING INTO A VFR PERIOD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THOUGH VFR WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING, NOTED BY
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. IN THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIME FRAME, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, AS
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS INCREASE AROUND 1000 FT AGL
PRIOR TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY. FRIDAY, STRONG SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 30 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, AND THOUGH SOMEWHAT TURBULENT,
THIS WILL ALLEVIATE ANY LLWS FROM CONTINUING.
MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH THIS FRONT, AND
THAT MAY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS LOWER VFR BY AFTERNOON, AS DRY AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST TRENDS NOW KEEP FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE EAST OF DBQ AND WELL EAST OF OTHER TERMINALS. WE'LL KEEP
WATCH ON THAT, BUT FOR NOW, DBQ IS NO LONGER EXPECTING A 30% OR
HIGHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN, RATHER A CHANCE AROUND 15 TO
20%, BELOW TAF MENTION IN THIS CASE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
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