853
FXUS63 KDVN 061220
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SUSTAINED N/NW WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 45
MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
- THE PRONOUNCED WARM-UP WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL AND THREAT FOR ANY
LIGHT GLAZE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR NW ILLINOIS COUNTIES -
PREDOMINANTLY STEPHENSON COUNTY - IS QUICKLY ENDING PER
RADAR AND OBS. THE LAST BOUT OF LIFT IS PUSHING THROUGH SE
WISCONSIN CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST. A CHECK
OF ROAD CONDITIONS AND WEBCAMS IN FAR NW ILLINOIS DOESN'T REVEAL
ANY TRAVEL TROUBLES OR CONCERNS. AS A RESULT, WILL NOT BE
REISSUING OUR GRAPHICAL NOWCAST AND SPS FOR STEPHENSON COUNTY
SET TO EXPIRE WITHIN THE NEXT 10-30+ MINUTES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST IL
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GOES WATER VAPOR
CHANNELS AND OBS REVEAL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE,
BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER PARCHED WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AT
OR ABOVE 8KFT AGL ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 FGEN AND ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL WAA. RADAR PRESENTATION THERE HAS ALSO
TAKEN SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE NATURE WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM. OVERALL, WE REMAIN WITH A CHANCE
(20-40%) OF PATCHY PRECIP FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF A GALENA, IL TO
PRINCETON, IL LINE THROUGH 11Z-12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOSS OF CLOUD ICE WOULD SUPPORT
MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT WITH
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GRAUPEL/SLEET AS WELL.
LOCALIZED SLIPPERY TRAVEL MAY RESULT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS,
RADAR TRENDS AND ROAD CONDITION REPORTS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL MESSAGING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING. IN THE WAKE, A
PERIOD OF STRONG/GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CAA AND STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND 35-40+ KT PER WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONCERNS THOUGH WITH A FAIRLY TRANSIENT BOUT OF
MAX CAA AND COUPLED PRESSURE GRADIENT/RISE PROGGED THIS MORNING
PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING, AND STRATUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING EXTENT OF
MIXING LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE
STRONGEST WINDS, POTENTIALLY NEAR ADVISORY, COULD BE RATHER
TRANSITORY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON,
ALBEIT STILL STAYING BREEZY/BRISK. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
LOW SIGNAL IN JUST A COUPLE OF THE CAMS OF SOME HCRS (HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS) AND ATTENDANT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY
JUST TO OUR EAST WITHIN HINTS OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (NW TO N/NE) IN EASTERN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN OUR
AREA OF NORTHERN IL SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND BECAUSE
OF THIS I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES.
TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. HIGHS LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL SEE RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCE AND STRENGTHEN ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK HITTING BAND OF WAA PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FURTHER NORTH INTO WI WHERE JUXTAPOSITION OF
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING IS PROGGED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TAP
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY AND TUESDAY),
AS A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S FOR SOME WITH NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >50F
AT 60-80+% NEAR AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WITH 40-50% PROBABILITIES FOR
>60F FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIPPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. THIS MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AT NIGHT. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES PARTICULARLY AROUND MID NEXT WEEK
WITH ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS STILL DRY ALONG WITH QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF EACH GLOBAL MODEL. BEYOND MID-WEEK, MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SYNOPTIC LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY ON. INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLEVIATE ANY LLWS CONTINUING BEYOND THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 KT
TODAY, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT POSSIBLE FOR A
PERIOD FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT AND DEVELOP IN THE COLD ADVECTION POST-
FRONTAL AND MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS LOWER VFR BY EVENING, AS DRY AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STAY WELL EAST OF DBQ AND MLI. THERE IS A LOW SIGNAL FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT NE
AFTER 07/06Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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