485
FXUS63 KDVN 070510
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1110 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
COMMENCE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
COOLING DOWN AGAIN.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, THERE IS LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE LOW CLOUD COVER THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PREVENTED DEEP MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT, WINDS AND PEAK
GUSTS HAVE BEEN LOWER THAT INITIALLY THOUGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
ON SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING
WINDS TO SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT HIGHS
SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT, THE WELL ADVERTISED WARM-UP
COMMENCES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. HOW WARM IT GETS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 60S DEGREES IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>70%) CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IS PART OF A
BROADER PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 10 HPA MEAN WINDS AT 60 N LATITUDE
DECREASING WITH STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES RISING. WHILE NOT A
CLASSIC SSW (SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING), IT DOES POINT TO FURTHER
PATTERN CHANGES STARTING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
INDEED ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING 500 HPA ANOMALIES DE-AMPLIFYING
THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
SLOWLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
AT THE LOWER LATITUDES THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
WHILE RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES, THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN EVENTUALLY ADVECTS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RAISES QUESTIONS ON
THE VIABILITY OF ANY SYSTEM BEING ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF-
AIFS AND AIGFS ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE CMC GLOBAL IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THE GFS THE
LEAST. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN, GENERATING A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION BUT NOT MUCH. THE CMC GLOBAL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN PRECIPITATION GENERATION ALSO IS COLDER WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEING MAINLY SNOW.
GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING, THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
ENSEMBLES) ARE VACILLATING REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FOR TUESDAY, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TURNED DRY FOR TUESDAY MORNING
WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOWS THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE RETURN FLOW COMING OFF THE GULF. THE GFS/CMC
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE DRY BUT HAVE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME
IS BEING INFLUENCED MORE BY THE THE ECMWF AND ICON MODELS. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE SLOWER BY 12-18 HOURS WITH THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM (WHICH IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE SNOW) BUT MORE OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PRECIPITATION.
AS A RESULT, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
OF IT POTENTIALLY BEING SNOW. NOW WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF DRY WEATHER OCCURRING THAN WET WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TONIGHT BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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