504
FXUS63 KDVN 070831
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
231 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR MID- TO LATE-WEEK. CHANCES OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 50 DEGREES ON MONDAY ARE 20 TO 50
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A SUNNY START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA), WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM TO THE UPPER 20S OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS BAND OF SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA. IF WE DID RECEIVE SNOW TONIGHT, IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IN
NATURE, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST WINDS, TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND
AS A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE PEAK OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGE LOOKS TO COME LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY (AROUND 00Z/6
PM), WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AROUND 9 TO 12 DEGREES C PER
THE LATEST GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES. THESE VALUES ARE
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AS VALUES NEAR 10 DEGREES C
WOULD BE NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM FOR DVN FOR 00Z MONDAY PER THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED
FOR THIS STRETCH, IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER. TUESDAY'S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIR ADVECTION, WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
PRECIPITATION, COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ON TUESDAY IN
COMPARISON TO MONDAY. INTERESTINGLY, THE 07.00Z LREF ENSEMBLE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF 50 DEGREE OR WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
HAS GONE DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN (WAS 20-70% AREA-
WIDE FROM THE 12Z RUN, NOW IT'S 10-40% CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80). THIS LARGE SHIFT FOR PROBS ON TUESDAY GIVES US MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE HIGH TEMPS. IT'S POSSIBLE THE NBM IS TOO WARM
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RELATIVELY COOL DOWN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND LOWS DIPPING TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THESE VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
DOES APPEAR TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THERE ARE A FEW MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER, TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND THE NBM ACCORDINGLY HAS LOWER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION (20 TO 40%) FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. I
DON'T EXPECT IT WILL PRECIPITATION THIS WHOLE PERIOD IN ANY ONE
LOCATION, BUT IT'S SOMETHING FOR US TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TONIGHT BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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