071
FXUS63 KDVN 072347
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR MID- TO LATE-WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
BANDED SNOW, EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOCALLY, THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MODELS RANGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES,
INDICATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE WAA MAGNITUDE. LOOKING AT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS, WE REMAIN WITH AN EASTERLY WIND. THIS MAY
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 30S, AND JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST
INTO THE LOW 40S. IN FACT, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOW AND A
CONSSHORT REALLY STRUGGLES TO REACH THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SO WHILE WARMER THAN TODAY, NOT TOO CERTAIN ON HIGHS
IN THE 40S TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW AND A MODERATING REGIME IS THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW
TURNS SLIGHTLY NW AND WE RE-ENTER THE CLIPPER TRAIN. THEN AT THE
VERY END WE LOOK TO TURN TO THE SW AND BRING A SYSTEM TO THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COME LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY
(AROUND 00Z/6 PM), WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AROUND 9 TO
12 DEGREES C. THESE VALUES ARE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, AS VALUES NEAR 10 DEGREES C WOULD BE NEAR THE DAILY
MAXIMUM FOR DVN FOR 00Z MONDAY PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
WHILE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED FOR THIS
STRETCH, IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER. TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES
ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR ADVECTION, WITH A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34), COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER ON TUESDAY IN COMPARISON TO MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
LOWS DIPPING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THESE VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW. SOME WAVES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK BRING POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST. NBM BLEND
HAS LONG DURATION POPS THAT ARE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN INTO THE MORNING AND AS CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. NO SIG WX IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH/GIBBS
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