253
FXUS63 KDVN 081059
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP BEGINS TODAY, LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID- TO LATE-WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
OUR WELL-ADVERTISED WARM-UP IS EXPECTED TO KICK INTO GEAR TODAY AS A
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE WARMEST
850 TEMPERATUES EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z/6 PM MONDAY PER THE
08.00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
AROUND 9 TO 12 DEGREES C. THESE VALUES ARE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR, AS VALUES APPROACHING 10 DEGREES C WOULD BE NEAR THE
DAILY MAXIMUM FOR DVN FOR 00Z TUESDAY PER THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS LONGER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A THICKER STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA, SO HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A DPROG/DT OF THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAS SHOWN A COOLING TREND FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, SO
TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STILL, HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE,
WITH OVER 40 DEGREES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN 40 DEGREES
INCREASES FOR MONDAY, WITH THE 08.00Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES OVER 40 DEGREES AROUND 70-100% FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF AN INDEPENDENCE, IA TO PRINCETON, IL LINE. IT'S POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD REACH 50 DEGREES OR
WARMER, WITH HREF PROBS OF 50-70%!
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET AS LREF
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES OF 50 DEGREE F OR WARMER CONTINUES TO
DECREASE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEAK FROPA
LATE MONDAY, WHICH WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ADDITIONALLY,
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN OUR AREA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, IT'S NOTEWORTHY THAT
THE NBM HAS DIALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST COMPARED TO SLIGHT CHANCES
(~20%) FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE, SO CLOUDS MIGHT BE THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN TROUGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, THE NBM STILL SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG HIGHWAY 20, WITH LOWER 50S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SIMILAR TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY,
THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THESE TEMPERATURES, SO READINGS COULD
STILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT NBM HAS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND 20-40%, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE
THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER QUITE A BIT AMONG THE MODELS, AND IF WE'RE
WARM AT THE SURFACE LIKE MANY MODELS INDICATE, THIS WOULD TEMPER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. INDEED, THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI FOR MINOR IMPACTS
(THINK WINTER ROAD IMPACTS) IS LESS THAN 20% FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
A VFR STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
A STOUT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED GREATLY TO CAPTURE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS STRATUS, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHEN THE STRATUS DECK
WILL DIMINISH. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THE STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE APPEARS TO BE THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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