512
FXUS63 KDVN 090535
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP BEGINS TODAY, LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID- TO LATE-WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PATTERN
QUICKLY TURNS TO ZONAL FLOW AS LOW LEVEL FIELDS SHIFT FROM A
WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAA INTO THE
AREA FOR TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA. THESE
CLOUDS AND THE WAA WILL DRIVE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE AND WHETHER OR
NOT THE ROBUST WAA. A QUICK DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING FOR MONDAY. THIS POINTS TO THE
CLOUDS LIKELY WINNING OUT EVEN THOUGH WE ARE LOOKING AT H85
TEMPS OF 8-11C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE GONE LOWER
ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 40S AND THE 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA. OVERALL A VERY MILD DAY FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNCHANGED FROM 12 HOURS AGO
AS WE SEE WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, BEFORE WE MODERATE
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE AREA TO END THE REST OF THE WEEK. NBM POPS ARE DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NW LEADING TO THE CLIPPER
TRACK TO DIP SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES
VERY ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS LITTLE RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE ON MUCH OF THE SPECIFICS WITH
THESE WAVES, LEADING TO THE NBM HAVING A LONG PERIOD OF SCHC TO
CHC POPS FOR THE AREA. OVERALL, THESE CLIPPERS SHOULD NOT LEAD
TO MUCH IF ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER, ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE FREEZING.
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, A SW LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED WITH TIMING, SO OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME GOOD QPF TO THE REGION. THERMODYNAMICS
ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING/RAIN FOR OUR AREA, SO IT WILL REQUIRE US
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON WINDS, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AS A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEN, MONDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT A
STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT WSW LOW-LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ALOFT,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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