118
FXUS63 KDVN 091729
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY BY MID-
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE WARM-UP PERSISTS TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ALONG
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GEFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE WARMEST PART OF THE THERMAL RIDGE TO COME LATER TODAY AROUND
00Z/6 PM THIS EVENING, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11 TO 14
DEGREES C. THESE VALUES WOULD BE ABOVE THE DAILY MAXIMUM FOR DVN FOR
850 TEMPERATURES PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WITH THAT SAID,
TODAY SHOULD FEEL EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AS HIGHS WARM
TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. IF YOU LOVED YESTERDAY'S
WARMER TEMPERATURES, YOU'RE GOING TO LOVE TODAY! SOUTHERLY WINDS
COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO
25 MPH POSSIBLE, SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AIR
TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, EVEN DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR TONIGHT, TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. A BROAD
MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA, BUT WITH DRY AIR REMAINING SETTLED, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH. INSTEAD, SOME CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT FOR TUESDAY, SO WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY. FOR THE FORECAST,
WE'RE LEANING TOWARDS LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE 30S SOUTH, AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR
50 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WARM AS EXPECTED TO BE FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, THESE VALUES ARE STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE NBM APPEARS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL, MAINTAINING 20-50% CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY, WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
CULPRIT FOR THURSDAY'S PRECIP POTENTIAL IS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH AN ATTENDANT WING OF 850-700 MB LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS MOST LIKELY, WITH A
LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF A WINTRY MIX. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL,
THE LATEST NBM EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH OF SNOW OR MORE
IS ONLY AROUND 20-50% (HIGHEST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR) ON
THURSDAY, WITH AROUND 10-30% FOR TWO INCHES (AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG
HIGHWAY 20), SO IT APPEARS LIKELY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN LIGHT.
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM IT GETS, SOME OF THE SNOW MAY MELT ON CONTACT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, LIMITING IMPACTS. INDEED, THE
PROBABILISTIC WSSI FOR MINOR IMPACTS (THINK WINTER ROAD IMPACTS) IS
LESS THAN 20% FOR THIS SNOW. THE NBM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN LOWER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (10-30%) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO AMPLIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.
OUR MORE WEATHER-SAVY FOLLOWERS MAY HAVE SEEN A LARGER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR OUR REGION FROM BOTH THE 09.00Z ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL
MODELS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEFORE ANYONE GETS CONCERNED
ABOUT SNOW, THE THERMAL PROFILES OF BOTH MODELS APPEARS TO STRONGLY
SUGGEST MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AT THIS TIME. EVEN SO, THE GFS IS
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SAME TIME, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MAIN
AVIATION CONCERNS REVOLVING AROUND LLWS TONIGHT. AROUND 00Z THIS
EVENING, WE WILL SEE LLWS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 45-50
KTS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN
06-10Z, WHERE WE WILL ALSO SEE SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. AT/AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE CAN
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 20-25 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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