367
FXUS63 KDVN 020507
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1107 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN LESS THAN AN
INCH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK,
INCREASING DAILY THROUGHOUT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
- AFTER MONDAY, WIDESPREAD DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SEEN,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
MOMENTS SEEN EACH DAY, WE WILL REMAIN GLOOMY AND DAMP THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HAVE UMBRELLAS HANDY!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THIS PATH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) IS POSSIBLE.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE OVERNIGHT
AND WITH SURFACE AIR TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING, MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND EVEN MORE SO
FAVORED NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA. WARM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY WET PAVEMENT WITH LIMITED
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST HREF MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOW THE 1"+ CONTOUR REMAINING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA, WHICH IS A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN; AND
NBM PROBS FOR 1"+ ARE <20% NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIDWEEK WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH A WARM THERMAL PROFILE FAVORING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
A BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE GREATEST POPS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 (70-90%). NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, POPS
LOWER TO 40-70% AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW,
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF OUR AREA
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL OF UP
TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE, WITH 48-HOUR
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 50-70% NORTH TO SOUTH.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL COVER MUCH OF
OUR CWA, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 70- 80%. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
INTO THE 50S IN THE NORTH AND 60S IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY REACH INTO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S, THOUGH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER COULD
TEMPER HIGHS.
AFTER MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AS
FRIDAY'S SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO BRL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WE WILL GENERALLY
SEE A BROKEN DECK BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 12Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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