457
FXUS63 KDVN 021802
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1202 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, INCREASING
DAILY THROUGHOUT. WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED BY
WEEK'S END, WITH 70S NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR SOME ON FRIDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY AND
BEYOND, WITH PROBABILITIES EXPANDING NORTHWARD EACH DAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL,
TODAY WILL BE A SEASONALLY PLEASANT DAY FOR MOST. LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA TODAY, WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SUN TO BREAK THROUGH.
TODAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 40S THROUGHOUT. AGAIN, WE SAW
TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH A
LARGER AREA OF MID-UPPER 40S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY THOUGH. OTHERWISE, WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST AHEAD OF US TODAY.
TONIGHT, A SUBTLE WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA, BRINGING ALONG
LOW-END POPS LARGELY TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR 30 IN OUR NORTH, AND REMAIN IN THE
MID 30S SOUTH. LLVL THERMAL PROFILES WILL LARGELY SUPPORT PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN. ALTHOUGH, AREAS ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE BORDERLINE THERMAL PROFILES, WITH SOME CAMS
SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE CONSENSUS POINTS TO SLIGHTLY MILDER
LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES, KEEPING IT AS RAIN, BUT THERE WILL BE A
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE
TIMEFRAME THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6AM, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING PUTTING
AN END TO IT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IS LOW, IT
IS WORTH A MENTION BECAUSE IT MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE.
THUS, KEEP THIS IN MIND AND DRIVE WITH ADDED CAUTION LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM BRIEF ZONAL
FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
STARK INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMES IN
TUESDAY, AS THE FIRST WAVE IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN MOVES THROUGH. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER/NEAR THE AREA, WHICH WILL
SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY, MUCH OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY, SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT
THIS AXIS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
FORECAST PACKAGES, HINTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MIGHT
NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
THUS, HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBS REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 (60-90% POPS), WITH LOWER PROBS NORTH (40-60% POPS). IN EITHER
CASE, IT LOOKS TO BE A GLOOMY AND CLOUDY DAY THROUGHOUT. OVERALL,
THIS LOOKS TO BE A PERSISTENT AND LONG DURATION LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY. THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL, NOR HIGH TOTALS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT 0.25" OR LESS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80, 0.25-0.50"+ BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 34, THEN 0.50"+ SOUTH OF
HWY34 WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 1.00"+ (20-30%) ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS MO TO MACOMB IL.
A LOT OF SIMILAR WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO TREND UPWARDS. WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW HIGH OUR TEMPERATURES GET, OWING TO DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL. EITHER WAY, WE WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK, WE WILL SEE
THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED, SHUNTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
FARTHER NORTH. THUS, WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
INCREASE NORTHWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. THUS, THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE,
WITH STRONGER FORCING ALSO FAVORING THE POTENTIAL. WITH SUCH A
PATTERN, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS,
WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF WE START TO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. LOOKING AT CSU SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE SEEMS LOW (<15% CHANCES), BUT NON-ZERO.
THUS, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXTENDED, AS THE SPC IS
ALSO HINTING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING NORTHWARD, BRINGING
THE DAY 5 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE NORTHWARDS TO JUST NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER.
WHILE THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE GLOOMY WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MUCH OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT RAIN. THUS, TOTALS AREN'T
EXPECTED TO ADD UP QUICKLY. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, WPC INDICATES
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-2.00". THE UPPER PART OF THAT
RANGE IS MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, OWING TO MUCH
OF THAT RAINFALL FALLING IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. IN THE
END, RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS, OWING TO
BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE AND THAWED GROUNDS. THUS, A MUCH NEEDED
SOAKING RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS
TO ATTEMPT TO BREAKDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT COMPLETELY. THUS,
WE MAY HAVE SOME MORE DRY TIME BETWEEN SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S/SE HAS LED TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AND THEN A DECREASE
IN CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT, LEADING TO PERIODS OF IFR WITH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT BRL AND CID. MLI AND DBQ MAY BE CLOSE TO
THE MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD TUESDAY AM. A FEW SHOWERS OR CORRIDORS OF
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE SO ONLY HAVE A PROB30 AT BRL FOR NOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...UTTECH
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