794
FXUS63 KDVN 021947
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, INCREASING
DAILY THROUGHOUT. WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED BY
WEEK'S END, WITH 70S NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR SOME ON FRIDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY AND
BEYOND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS IOWA AND
ILLINOIS, GRADUALLY WORKING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE CLOUDS
HAVE NOT MADE IT TO PORTIONS OF NW ILLINOIS AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING
SHOWED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHARP TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND ~950MB, AND WITH LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD
HELP TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I-80 (50-80%).
OVERALL THOUGH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP A TRACE TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34, SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE NEAR A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THE STRATUS TONIGHT WILL ACT TO HOLD UP TEMPERATURES
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MID 30S MOST COMMON FOR LOWS. AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING SO THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (<20%) FOR PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM). OVERALL THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM BRIEF ZONAL
FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
STARK INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMES IN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE FIRST WAVE IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
MOVES THROUGH. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER/NEAR
THE AREA, WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STEADIER RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING MOST OF IT SOUTH OF I-80. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBS
ARE WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 (60-80% POPS), WITH LOWER PROBS
NORTH (10-30% POPS). RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 40-60% CHANCE FOR 0.50"+
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 AND MUCH LOWER PROBS FOR I-80 AND
NORTH (10-30%).
A LOT OF SIMILAR WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO TREND UPWARDS. WE
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW HIGH OUR TEMPERATURES GET, OWING
TO DENSE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL. EITHER WAY, WE
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE WEEK, WE WILL SEE THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED,
SHUNTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTH. THUS, WE WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INCREASE NORTHWARD EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEK, FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THUS,
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE, WITH STRONGER FORCING
ALSO FAVORING THE POTENTIAL. WITH SUCH A PATTERN, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS, WOULDN'T BE
SHOCKED IF WE START TO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. LOOKING AT CSU SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE SEEMS LOW (<15% CHANCES), BUT NON-
ZERO. THUS, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXTENDED, AS THE SPC
IS ALSO HINTING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING NORTHWARD,
BRINGING THE DAY 5 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE NORTHWARDS TO JUST NEAR
OUR SOUTHERN BORDER.
WHILE THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE GLOOMY WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL ALL AT ONCE. THUS, TOTALS
AREN'T EXPECTED TO ADD UP QUICKLY. IN THE END, RIGHT NOW WE ARE
NOT SEEING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS, OWING TO BELOW NORMAL SOIL
MOISTURE AND THAWED GROUNDS. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO
ATTEMPT TO BREAKDOWN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S/SE HAS LED TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AND THEN A DECREASE
IN CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT, LEADING TO PERIODS OF IFR WITH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT BRL AND CID. MLI AND DBQ MAY BE CLOSE TO
THE MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD TUESDAY AM. A FEW SHOWERS OR CORRIDORS OF
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE SO ONLY HAVE A PROB30 AT BRL FOR NOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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