760
FXUS63 KDVN 030810
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, INCREASING
DAILY THROUGHOUT. WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONG SUPPORT OF 70+ FOR FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN TODAY, EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. THIS IS TRUE AGAIN
TONIGHT, WITH RAINS MAINLY SOUTH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- FRIDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXTENSIVE STRATUS, WITH SOME SOUTHERN FOG MIXED IN, AND A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH
NO THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
LIKE YESTERDAY, WE'RE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH CLOUD COVER NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TODAY, LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34
TODAY, AS THE WARM FRONT AND CONVERGENCE (NOTED BY FOG) IS OVER
MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY, THUS
LIMITING RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS FRONT IN OUR SOUTH, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. IN THAT TIME
FRAME, MU CAPE OVER 500 IS FEED INTO AN WEST TO EAST ELEVATED WARM
FRONT, RESULTING IN SOME TRAINING/REPEATING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1 INCH CERTAINLY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR RAINS FARTHER NORTH, THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PRODUCTIVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH WED/THU, BUT
THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS IN THAT
PROCESS. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25" OR MORE REMAIN WELL ABOVE 80% FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS COMBINED, BUT 1"+ TOTALS ARE NOW UNDER 40% FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE LATEST NBM DATA SET. WITHIN
THIS TIME FRAME, THE BEST SUPPORT FOR STORMS/WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST BY THE NBM, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR
50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL NEARBY. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST DAY,
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED. THANKFULLY, IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD
OFFSET THE FIRE RISK THAT DAY.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE STORM RISK FRIDAY, THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR THAT PERIOD, SHOWING A STRONG
COLD FROPA ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, VS EARLIER IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA IN THAT TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A WARM SECTOR
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THAT OUR FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH POPS
SEEMS DESTINED TO BE LOWERED, AT LEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBILITY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST. STRONG THUNDER SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE, THOUGH UNFAVORABLE
TIMING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, AND A ROBUST WARM
SECTOR/CAPE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY,
WITH ANY RAINS ENDING EARLY IN THE DAY. THOUGH THE NEW SPC EXTENDED
FORECAST IS NOT OUT UNTIL AROUND 4 AM, WE'RE THINKING THERE WILL
STILL BE A THREAT OUTLINED BY THEM.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, MILD AIR REMAINS IN THE MIDWEST! HIGHS IN THE
60S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POSSIBLE LOW 70S
AGAIN BY TUESDAY. IF RAINS DO FALL AS FORECAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY GREEN-UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, MAINLY MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND THAT AS A
WARM FRONT REMAINS STATIONED SOUTH OF IOWA, AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION, AT TIMES, LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT LIKE TODAY, IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT A DROP IN CIGS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET
TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, WITH THE VAST
NUMBER OF HOURS DRY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN NORTHEAST IOWA, FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS BRUSHING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING AFTER
12Z. TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWER AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. TAFS HOWEVER WILL BE MAINLY
DRY, AS THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER ANY OF THE
SITES, THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL BE NOT TOO FAR SOUTH
OF BRL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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