357
FXUS63 KDVN 031111
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, INCREASING
DAILY THROUGHOUT. WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONG SUPPORT OF 70+ FOR FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN TODAY, EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. THIS IS TRUE AGAIN
TONIGHT, WITH RAINS MAINLY SOUTH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- FRIDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXTENSIVE STRATUS, WITH SOME SOUTHERN FOG MIXED IN, AND A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH
NO THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
LIKE YESTERDAY, WE'RE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH CLOUD COVER NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TODAY, LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34
TODAY, AS THE WARM FRONT AND CONVERGENCE (NOTED BY FOG) IS OVER
MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY, THUS
LIMITING RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS FRONT IN OUR SOUTH, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. IN THAT TIME
FRAME, MU CAPE OVER 500 IS FEED INTO AN WEST TO EAST ELEVATED WARM
FRONT, RESULTING IN SOME TRAINING/REPEATING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1 INCH CERTAINLY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR RAINS FARTHER NORTH, THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PRODUCTIVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH WED/THU, BUT
THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS IN THAT
PROCESS. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25" OR MORE REMAIN WELL ABOVE 80% FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS COMBINED, BUT 1"+ TOTALS ARE NOW UNDER 40% FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE LATEST NBM DATA SET. WITHIN
THIS TIME FRAME, THE BEST SUPPORT FOR STORMS/WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST BY THE NBM, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR
50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL NEARBY. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST DAY,
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED. THANKFULLY, IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD
OFFSET THE FIRE RISK THAT DAY.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE STORM RISK FRIDAY, THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR THAT PERIOD, SHOWING A STRONG
COLD FROPA ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, VS EARLIER IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA IN THAT TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A WARM SECTOR
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THAT OUR FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH POPS
SEEMS DESTINED TO BE LOWERED, AT LEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBILITY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST. STRONG THUNDER SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE, THOUGH UNFAVORABLE
TIMING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, AND A ROBUST WARM
SECTOR/CAPE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY,
WITH ANY RAINS ENDING EARLY IN THE DAY. THOUGH THE NEW SPC EXTENDED
FORECAST IS NOT OUT UNTIL AROUND 4 AM, WE'RE THINKING THERE WILL
STILL BE A THREAT OUTLINED BY THEM.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, MILD AIR REMAINS IN THE MIDWEST! HIGHS IN THE
60S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POSSIBLE LOW 70S
AGAIN BY TUESDAY. IF RAINS DO FALL AS FORECAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY GREEN-UP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WE WILL REMAIN BLANKETED IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM LIFR IN OUR SOUTH TO MVFR NORTH. BRL WILL
SEE THE WORST OF THE CIGS, HOVERING AROUND 500 FT WITH SOME
MIST/DRIZZLE RESULTING IN BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS AS WELL. AFTER
18Z, WE WILL START TO SEE CIGS LIFT FROM NORTH-SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BRL AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING. BRL WILL REMAIN IN THE ZONE OF PERIODIC
SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS AROUND 1000-1500 FT INTO
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS REDUCING VIS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THUS, OPTED TO
MESSAGE THIS UNDER A PROB30 GROUP. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND EASTERLY,
SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GUNKEL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page