833
FXUS63 KDVN 040009
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS UNDER A
QUARTER INCH. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
- A WARMING TREND REMAINS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S FRIDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL KS ACROSS MISSOURI TO JUST SOUTH OF
ST. LOUIS AT 19Z. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS WERE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN FALLING TODAY. OUR 18Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWED
A NICE INVERSION AROUND 950MB THAT HAS KEPT THESE CLOUDS AROUND
AND THUS KEPT OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.
SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN. FORCING FROM AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IN THE 850-925MB
LAYER TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IN THIS AREA WILL BE VERY MUCH WELCOMED WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER MO.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE 12Z HREF LPMM 24-HR
QPF PROGS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY DECREASED WITH AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE
0.1"-0.25" RANGE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THERE IS
A 15-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, BUT I HAVE
SOME CONCERN THAT THESE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TO
LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS CHICAGO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY,
BRINGING SOME FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING TO BRING DECREASING CLOUDS, DRY
CONDITIONS, AND A RATHER PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A 75KT
MID-LEVEL JET. AHEAD OF THIS, A VERY WARM ANOMALOUS AIR MASS
(INDICATIVE OF EFI > 0.8 AND 850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE 12-14C
RANGE) AND INCREASING PWS OVER 1" WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
WITH THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 18Z FRIDAY. THE
QUESTIONS BECOME WHERE WILL STORMS INITIATE, WILL THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY, AND DOES THE WAVE SLOW DOWN AT ALL THEREBY
DECREASING OUR OVERALL RISK? LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE NAM/GFS
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHEREAS THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH
STORMS ONGOING OVER WESTERN IA EARLY FRIDAY MOVING EAST TOWARDS
EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN ANY CASE, THIS WILL BE THE
PERIOD TO WATCH AS SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A LEVEL 2 OF 5
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MORE DETAILS WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE IN
THE COMING DAYS.
IN ADDITION, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, AND
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
FROPA WILL START THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. A BEAUTIFUL
STRETCH OF WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S IS
FORECAST SAT/SUN, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO
70 DEGREES ON MONDAY! THE ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING CONVECTION
POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6+ HOURS NEAR KBRL AND THEN FOLLOWED BY
FOG POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z THROUGH 15Z. OVERALL, ANTICIPATE
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR TO START, THEN BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY
IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM TRENDS GENERALLY FAVOR THE BULK OF CONVECTION JUST
SOUTH OF KBRL NEAR THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT PROB30
MENTION FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KBRL. OTHERWISE,
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KBRL LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO MORE CONSENSUS FOR FOG INTO
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY NEAR KDBQ TO KCID, WHERE
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR <1SM ARE 60-70% AND LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP SHOW WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES 1/2SM OR LESS.
I HAVE TRENDED TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AT KCID AND KDBQ
IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z THROUGH 15Z, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AND VLIFR. A LOWER CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR
LIFR IS ALSO NOTED AT KMLI DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD TRENDS, BUT
FOR NOW I HAVE A TEMPO IFR PERIOD AFTER 08Z/09Z.
WINDS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR KCID AND KDBQ CLOSER TO
A RIDGE AXIS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KBRL: 73 IN 1910
KCID: 73 IN 2005
KDBQ: 69 IN 2000
KMLI: 73 IN 2005
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...GROSS
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