110
FXUS63 KDVN 040841
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
241 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND MAY REQUIRE
A QUICK ADVISORY SHOULD IT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS IS
MOST POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
- ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
WHILE CLEARING LATE IN THE EVENING ALLOWED SOME AREAS TO COOL OFF
NEAR FREEZING, AND DEVELOP FOG, WE'RE SEEING A RAPIDLY EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK WITH LOW BASES AROUND 200-600 FT AGL MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST (LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCE). BY SUNRISE, IT APPEARS THIS
WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE ENTIRE CWA, AND WITH THAT, WE SHOULD BEGIN
OUR DAY CLOUDY, AND POTENTIALLY KEEP THAT GOING ALL DAY TODAY. NBM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SEEMED TOO WARM IN THE MID 50S, AND I'VE
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO GO CLOSER TO THE 10TH
PERCENTILE NBM, IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
THROUGH RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING MUCH ACTIVITY TO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. SOME 20-30% LIGHT RAIN POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH TODAY.
TONIGHT, AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ALL MODELS BRING A SMALL, RATHER
TIGHTLY PACKED UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE MOST MODELS
ARE LIGHT ON QPF WITH THAT WAVE, THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
LOFT, AND I DO SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN THING I SEE HOLDING THIS EVENT
BACK IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WAVE, VS AIMED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. THUS, WE'RE GOING WITH LIGHT QPF, BUT WITH THE
STORMS POSSIBLE AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY, SOME ISOLATED
RAINS AROUND 0.50 SEEM POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDNIGHT TO
NOON THURSDAY PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ONCE RAINS EXIT THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A MAINLY DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THOUGH DRY, I SEE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, AND HAVE AGAIN
COORDINATED TO GO WITH THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE
MOST VOLATILE IN OUR FORECAST, AS STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TRANSPORT INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION, AND ALSO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR TILTED UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING BOTH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT'S MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS WELL WEST OF
OUR CWA, BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY LATE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF STORMS IS NOT
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY MODELS, BUT THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ IN THAT PERIOD MAY ACTUALLY PROVIDE OUR MOST
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS EVENT. FOR NOW, OUR
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THESE STORMS IS NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON TO
PRINCETON IL.
FRIDAY, AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES NORTHEAST, WE WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH OF
THE DAY DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS ARRIVES CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT. NBM POPS REMAIN SKY HIGH THROUGH THAT PERIOD
OVER 90%, BUT AS THIS APPROACHES THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST, I
EXPECT TO SEE SOME BETTER TIMING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
INCLUDING MUCH LOWER POPS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY
FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS. I DO THINK THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OF
THIS EVENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS MORE PROLIFICALLY FARTHER WEST OF
OUR AREA, AND A STRATIFYING OUT GUSTY LINE IN OUR AREA. THE
BROAD STRONG WINDS ALOFT CERTAINLY COULD WARRANT A SEVERE WIND,
AND POSSIBLY SPIN UP TORNADO THREAT INTO OUR AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS PERIOD FOR BOTH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS PER NEW SPC OUTLOOKS.
IN ADDITION, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, PARTIAL SUNSHINE, AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S ON
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FROPA
WILL START THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF
WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S IS FORECAST SAT/SUN,
WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON MONDAY!
THE ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST IS IN STORE THE NEXT 24+ HOURS,
AS WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF IOWA, WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH OF IT INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN
VARIABLE IFR/MVFR AND SOME CLEAR SKIES TOO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS CHAOTIC CONDITION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS
CLEAR SKY AREAS SEE FOG FORMATION, WHILE THE LOWER CIGS COULD
DROP INTO IFR RANGES ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS. EITHER WAY,
WE'RE EXPECTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS DURING THE
MID DAY HOURS. THIS IS TYPICAL OF WEATHER FOUND JUST NORTH OF
WARM FRONTS IN THE EARLY SPRING IN THIS MIDWEST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KBRL: 73 IN 1910
KCID: 73 IN 2005
KDBQ: 69 IN 2000
KMLI: 73 IN 2005
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GROSS
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...GROSS
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