547
FXUS63 KDVN 051751
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY, AND AGAIN EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITHIN THAT RISK, A CIG1 RISK FOR STRONG SEVERE
WEATHER HAS INCLUDED OUR SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 CWA.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WHEN WET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS WEAK FLOW IS FOUND JUST NORTH OF THE
PRIMARY WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, AND A TIGHT UPPER LOW IS MOVING
OVER OUR AREA. THIS UPPER LOW HAS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWER AND WEAK
STORMS, BUT WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GOING AT
LOWER LEVELS, AND SUPPORT FOG LINGERING PAST THE INITIAL 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY IMPROVE
VISIBILITY, BUT MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SEE THE DENSE FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A DAMP MORNING IS CERTAIN.
RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, THOUGH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL OFFER ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH.
LIKE YESTERDAY, I EXPECT CLOUD COVER THE LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, AND
HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM, OR GENERALLY LOWER
50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. WHILE THAT MIGHT SEEM LIKE A GOOD WARM
UP, IT'S A REFLECTION OF THE INCREASING DEW POINT VALUES TODAY AS
THEY CLIMB TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, INITIALLY, WE'LL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
MORE FOG IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER COOL DAMP GROUNDS WILL CONTINUE THIS REGIME.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE 3 AM 6 AM TIME FRAME, A
WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEL SUPPORT OF ~1000 J/KG MUCAPE FORECAST
FOR THIS POTENTIAL MCS ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ. MODELS SOUNDING
ARE A BIT MORE SKINNY THAN LAST NIGHT REGARDING THIS ACTIVITY, BUT I
THINK MESSAGING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR/LIGHTNING/HAIL RISK STILL SEEMS
APPROPRIATE GIVEN DECENT SHEAR PROFILES ALOFT. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE VERY CLOSE TO AN OTTUMWA TO QUAD CITIES, TO
ROCKFORD IL LINE, WHICH MAY REPRESENT A STRONG STORM, BEFORE CUTTING
OFF TO LOWER COVERAGE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT IS NOT THE MAIN SHOW OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THAT DAY, BUT COULD OFFER THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN MANY DAYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG WARM SECTOR REMAINS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL DRY, BREEZY
HOURS ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S, WITH DEWPOINT VALUES
REACHING THE LOWER TO POSSIBLE MID 60S (PER NBM). IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
IF ANY CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS TO
FORM IN EASTERN IOWA, BUT IF THEY DO, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR ALL HAZARDS TO FORM.
FRIDAY EVENING AND MAINLY OVERNIGHT, THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL
ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST, LIKELY IN A CONTINUOUS LINE CAPABLE OF 40-
60 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER VALUES WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. SPC
CONTINUES TO SHOW OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT, LEVEL 2 RISK FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER, WE ARE SEEING CIG1 VALUES FOR WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADO INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST 1/3. THIS IS NOTABLE, AND WE'LL MENTION THAT A FEW
STRONG SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS CAPABLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT SAID,
THE MORE CURRENT SCENARIO PREFERRED FOR THIS EVENT, IS A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT
MAINLY IN THE MID EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHERE STORM COLD
POOLS HAVE MERGED PRIOR TO ARRIVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE
ARE SOME CAMS THAT ARE FASTER WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MOST NOTABLY
THE 06Z HRRR WHICH HAS ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN CWA BY EARLY
EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL START THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. A BEAUTIFUL
STRETCH OF WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA TO THE MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IS FORECAST SUN, WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY! THE ROLLER
COASTER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER IN
THE WEEK.
RAINFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT (OVER 1 INCH) IN THIS MID TO LATE WEEK
TRANSITION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT.
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE MAY ALSO KEEP MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21 UTC AT ALL TAF SITES WITH AN IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER
THAT AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 03 UTC
AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06 UTC AND THEN ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 15 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AFTER 15 UTC ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS
STORM SYSTEM.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KBRL: 73 IN 1910
KCID: 73 IN 2005
KDBQ: 69 IN 2000
KMLI: 73 IN 2005
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS
CLIMATE...GROSS
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