838
FXUS63 KDVN 052359 CCA
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AREAWIDE FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH A CONTINUED LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
- FOG, SOME DENSE, AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY AND WARM ON FRIDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AN ACTIVE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. FIRST REGARDING
RECURRENCE OF FOG. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED ON RECENT NIGHTS AND THE
AREA BEING NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE, THERE IS
THAT POTENTIAL AND FOR SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN THAT COULD AFFECT
THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS SETUP IS NOT AS CLEAR AS
THIS MORNING, HOWEVER.
A 500 MB TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN US INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVER THAT TIME SPAN, THE SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A DEVELOPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STORMS SHOULD FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. IN GENERAL, THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BETWEEN 3 AM TO 10 AM, WITH THE CENTER OF THAT BEING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. ELEVATED CAPE OF 200-600 J/KG TONIGHT, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, AND FREEZING LEVELS ONLY AROUND 10KFT WILL
MAKE SMALL HAIL PROBABLE AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW (LEVEL 1
OF 5).
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERAL HOURS IN A WARM AND BREEZY WARM SECTOR
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG RAIN LINGERS IN OUR NORTH. SEE OUR CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR WHERE THIS STACKS UP FOR MARCH 6.
THIS LOW TRACK IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PATH FOR POSSIBLE
EARLY SEASON SEVERE WEATHER (IF OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES
LINE UP). AS THE TROUGH AND A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 70 TO 90
KNOTS LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER FRIDAY, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA INCREASING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PWATS NEARING 1.30 INCHES (UPPER FEW
PERCENTILE FOR TIME OF YEAR). WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORMS, THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY IN MOST OF
THE AREA SEEING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SOME MAY SEE
MULTIPLE WAVES IN THAT FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WITH AN INCREASING
WIND FIELD THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA, AND COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING
GREATER DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF STORM SUSTENANCE AND ORGANIZATION
AND IF STORMS CAN TAP UNSTABLE AIR FORM THE LOW LEVELS. WE
THINK THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY INCLUDING
POTENTIALLY >70 MPH IF SUSTAINED SURGES/BOWS CAN DEVELOP IN
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR. HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE 0 TO 3 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS AND ITS ORIENTATION WITH THE
EXPECTED LINE OR MORE SO QUASI- LINEAR STRUCTURE MEANS THAT
MESOVORTEX GENERATION IS POSSIBLE. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTATION SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT MEANS THAT STORMS MAY
NOT RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIKELY FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO SOME KIND OF A QLCS AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN.
BUT AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT MORPHOLOGY AND SPEED. OVERALL,
STORMS THAT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5 PM
FRIDAY THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY, WITH FADING THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT BY 6
A.M. SATURDAY.
THE NBM MEMBERSHIP HAS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINOR MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER ON THE FLOODING END HAVING TO BE DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OVER A METRO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING WILL START THE PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA TO THE
UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IS FORECAST
SUN, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY! THE ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK.
A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY (OVER 1
INCH) IN THIS MID TO LATE WEEK TRANSITION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVOLVING INTO MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING IN
STRATUS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE. DENSE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE RIVER SITES TOWARD
06Z THROUGH 09Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE A MORE MIXED BL AS
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. FOCUS SHIFTS TO INCREASING CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TOWARD 08Z-09Z THROUGH 13-14Z. HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD
OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY WITH THUNDER MENTION AT THE
TAFS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. INSTABILITY COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LLWS WAS BEING ADVERTISED BY
GUIDANCE IN THIS TIMEFRAME NEAR KCID, BUT WAS OMITTED AS IT IS
IMPLIED WITH THE PREVAILING TSRA MENTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH 21Z.
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CEILINGS FROM IFR TO HIGHER MVFR AND
POSSIBLY VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KBRL: 73 IN 1910
KCID: 73 IN 2005
KDBQ: 69 IN 2000
KMLI: 73 IN 2005
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS/FRIEDLEIN
LONG TERM...COUSINS/ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE/DELAUNE
CLIMATE...GROSS
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