197
FXUS63 KDVN 061742
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL HAZARDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE; DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- BREEZY AND WARM TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CLEARING DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN IA, NORTHERN MO, AND SOUTHEAST IA BEHIND THE STORMS
THAT ROLLED THROUGH THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS AN MCV IN WESTERN KS
WITH SOME HCRS BEHIND THE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN KS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT FROM NEAR ANKENY, IA
STRETCHING TOWARDS WASHINGTON, IA SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MACOMB. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM QUICKLY WITH
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING.
THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS FOR
STORM INITIATION. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THIS AREA THROUGH 19Z.
IF STORMS FORM, SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. ANY STORM THAT CROSSES THE WARM FRONT TO POSE A
TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING IS
STILL ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A SLIGHT POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 1004MB WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN,
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 1000MB. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS SET TO REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH PWATS REACHING NEAR 1.30". PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE MORE ROBUST ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY MARCH STANDARDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS WHICH COULD DROP A QUICK 0.50"+ OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENT WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA WITH 0.50 - 1.50" POSSIBLE ON AVERAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY AM. AREAS THAT GET HIT BY REPEATED ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD RECEIVE 2"+ OF RAINFALL AS INDICATED BY THE HREF
LPMM QPF. THIS IS FAVORED TO THE NORTH OF I-80 AND AGAIN WOULD
OCCUR ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST CAMS, AND ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SURFACE LOW
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS,
IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA IS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM WELL
TO OUR WEST OVER SE NEBRASKA INTO SW IOWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE
INTO ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SEGMENTS AND APPROACH THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TONIGHT (APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 7 - 9 PM). THE
MAIN CONCERNS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH, ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPIN UP TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHEASTWARD SURGING SEGMENTS (0-3 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, ORIENTED TO THE NE). TO REITERATE, THE MAIN
TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 PM TO 1 AM. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES, WHICH IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. FOR LATE TONIGHT
(AFTER 1 AM), THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED,
YET GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND THEN AFTERNOON TEMPS HOLD IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A
NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, PLENTY OF
SUN, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. THE WARMTH
WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA! ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
MID MARCH NORMALS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY 20Z/06 ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP 20Z/06 TO
01Z/07 ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MAIN PUSH OF
SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR AFTER 02Z/07 AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 KNOTS AND VSBYS BRIEFLY UNDER 1SM IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KBRL: 73 IN 1910
KCID: 73 IN 2005
KDBQ: 69 IN 2000
KMLI: 73 IN 2005
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...GROSS
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...GROSS
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