404
FXUS63 KDVN 062001
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
201 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- THUNDERSTORM TIMING THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL AFTER
8PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAIN THIS MORNING, WITH
TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.30" AND 1.50". THE LAST TIME WE SAW
RAIN AMOUNTS THIS HIGH WAS BACK ON JAN 9TH! A SPRING-LIKE FEEL
TO THE AIR WAS SEEN TODAY, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH. AS OF
NOON, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE A SURFACE LOW NEAR ESTHERVILLE,
IA, WITH A WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
MARSHALLTOWN AND THEN ALONG THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR INTO ILLINOIS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WAS OBSERVED FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KEST
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KOMA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST IL DEVELOPING ALONG A MUCAPE AND 700MB MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORMING JUST EAST OF DES
MOINES.
AN ACTIVE 18-24 HOURS IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WI BY
09Z SATURDAY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED SOME AREAS TO WARM QUICKER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY LOW RISK OF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA, TO THE QUAD CITIES, TO
STERLING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IF ANY MORE
DEVELOP WITH THE LACK OF AN APPARENT TRIGGER UNTIL LATE EVENING.
OUR 18Z DVN SOUNDING HAD A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 940MB WHICH
MAY KEEP ANY SURFACE BASED AND SUBSEQUENT TORNADIC THREAT NEAR
ZERO THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG
KINEMATICS AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
55KTS, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND PWS AROUND 1.3") WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE QUESTION MARK REMAINS IS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE STORMS NEAR THE CWA
LATE IN THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME, LATEST CAMS SHOW SCATTERED
DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL IA AFTER 4PM GROWING
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SEGMENTS OR LINES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH, ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPIN UP TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
NORTHEASTWARD SURGING SEGMENTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. HEAVY RAIN AND SUB-SEVERE WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THIS WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST
OF MS RVR AT 12Z SATURDAY, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPS NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND REMINDING US THAT IT IS STILL EARLY MARCH. CALENDAR
DAY HIGHS WILL OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. DEEP MIXING
AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. WE
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS AS AFTERNOON MIN RH
VALUES DROP BELOW 35%.
NEXT WEEK...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY AND
THEN FALLING TEMPS CLOSER TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL OFFER OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
BUT DOESN'T LOOK TO BRING WIDESPREAD QPF, WITH THE NBM ONLY SHOWING
50-70% PROBS OF GREATER THAN 0.25" SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD, IL TO
FAIRFIELD, IA LINE ENDING 12Z WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY 20Z/06 ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP 20Z/06 TO
01Z/07 ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MAIN PUSH OF
SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR AFTER 02Z/07 AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 KNOTS AND VSBYS BRIEFLY UNDER 1SM IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KBRL: 73 IN 1910
KCID: 73 IN 2005
KDBQ: 69 IN 2000
KMLI: 73 IN 2005
MARCH 9:
KBRL: 74 IN 1986
KCID: 68 IN 2021
KDBQ: 65 IN 1977
KMLI: 71 IN 2021
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...GROSS
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