820
FXUS63 KDVN 070925
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TODAY BEHIND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
- ANOTHER NICE WARM UP INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER
RAIN SYSTEM POSSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
TODAY...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SEEN NOW IN SFC OBSERVATIONS PUSHING
ACRS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN DVN CWA WILL LOOK TO SWEEP ACRS THE MS RVR
BAY AROUND 12-13Z OR SO THIS MORNING, WITH POST FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE
30S NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO MN. THUS WITH
ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO COME THIS WAY, 12 HOUR HIGH TEMPS WILL
OCCUR AT 12Z ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ACRS IL. MOST TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ERODING FROM
THE WEST TOWARD EVENING. A FEW POST-FRONTAL SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE TODAY THE
START OF A DRY REGIME UNTIL TOWARD THE MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.
TONIGHT...WITH A PASSING SFC RIDGE LOBE AND SFC WIND DECREASE, A
COOLER NIGHT IN STORE WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER OVERNIGHT, AND LOOK
TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH SPEED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG IN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AREAS...PLUS DRYING TODAY WILL HELP THAT CAUSE
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING REGIME AGAIN AS THE STEERING
PATTERN FLATTEN ACRS THE MID CONUS AND LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZY AND MILDER MILDER WITH SUNSHINE, HELPING
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MONDAY,
WITH LLVL VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND MIXING SUPPORTING NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. BEYOND THAT, LONGER
RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING ALONG LLVL
BAROCLINICITY AND DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PLAINS ON
WED. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS ARE UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF
AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS STREAMING RIGHT UP THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY. WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY LAYING OUT ACRS IA ALONG
THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY, A MOISTURE LADEN LLJ
FLOWING UP AND OVER CONVERGING ON THE THERMAL RIBBON WILL LOOK TO
SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACRS THE
AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. EARLY SIGNS ARE THAT
THERE MAY BE PLENTY OF STORM BEARING SHEAR TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME
STRONG STORMS IN OR NEAR OUR AREA OF CONCERN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY MAY BE WET AS WELL AS THE SFC
SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE PHASING UPPER WAVE ENERGY ACRS THE MID
TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL LOOK TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DVN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE AN ACTIVE COLD CONVEYOR WRAPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SHUNTING THE FRONT AND PRECIP BANDS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF COOLING PROFILES CAN PRODUCE A PRECIP TYPE
CHANGE BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. THEN IT APPEARS A MUCH
COOLER TEMP REGIME WILL FOLLOW WHATEVER MID-WEEK SYSTEM CAN FORM
ACRS THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPANS FROM ROUGHLY
DBQ TO BRL TO OPEN THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. GREATEST CHANCES FOR 30+
KT GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT BRL AND MLI
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE CONVERTED EARLIER PROB30S TO TEMPOS TO
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
DUE TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT IFR CIGS WILL LOWER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST SATURDAY. DO ANTICIPATE
STRONG WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR WITH
CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...WFO MPX
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