278
FXUS63 KDVN 071039
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TODAY BEHIND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
- ANOTHER NICE WARM UP INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER
RAIN SYSTEM POSSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
TODAY...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SEEN NOW IN SFC OBSERVATIONS PUSHING
ACRS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN DVN CWA WILL LOOK TO SWEEP ACRS THE MS RVR
BAY AROUND 12-13Z OR SO THIS MORNING, WITH POST FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE
30S NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO MN. THUS WITH
ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO COME THIS WAY, 12 HOUR HIGH TEMPS WILL
OCCUR AT 12Z ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ACRS IL. MOST TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ERODING FROM
THE WEST TOWARD EVENING. A FEW POST-FRONTAL SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE TODAY THE
START OF A DRY REGIME UNTIL TOWARD THE MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.
TONIGHT...WITH A PASSING SFC RIDGE LOBE AND SFC WIND DECREASE, A
COOLER NIGHT IN STORE WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER OVERNIGHT, AND LOOK
TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH SPEED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG IN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AREAS...PLUS DRYING TODAY WILL HELP THAT CAUSE
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING REGIME AGAIN AS THE STEERING
PATTERN FLATTEN ACRS THE MID CONUS AND LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZY AND MILDER MILDER WITH SUNSHINE, HELPING
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MONDAY,
WITH LLVL VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND MIXING SUPPORTING NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. BEYOND THAT, LONGER
RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING ALONG LLVL
BAROCLINICITY AND DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PLAINS ON
WED. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS ARE UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF
AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS STREAMING RIGHT UP THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY. WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY LAYING OUT ACRS IA ALONG
THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY, A MOISTURE LADEN LLJ
FLOWING UP AND OVER CONVERGING ON THE THERMAL RIBBON WILL LOOK TO
SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACRS THE
AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. EARLY SIGNS ARE THAT
THERE MAY BE PLENTY OF STORM BEARING SHEAR TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME
STRONG STORMS IN OR NEAR OUR AREA OF CONCERN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY MAY BE WET AS WELL AS THE SFC
SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE PHASING UPPER WAVE ENERGY ACRS THE MID
TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL LOOK TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DVN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE AN ACTIVE COLD CONVEYOR WRAPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SHUNTING THE FRONT AND PRECIP BANDS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF COOLING PROFILES CAN PRODUCE A PRECIP TYPE
CHANGE BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. THEN IT APPEARS A MUCH
COOLER TEMP REGIME WILL FOLLOW WHATEVER MID-WEEK SYSTEM CAN FORM
ACRS THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY
NW WINDS OF 25-30 KTS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A TRANSITORY BOUT OF SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY OF 2-5SM IN FOG AND DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR KCID AND KDBQ. THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DECREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT (40-45 KT NEAR 2KFT AGL) WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AROUND 09Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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