145
FXUS63 KDVN 080940
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK IN
THE AFTERNOON.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK TO ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 2/3 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD, AS THE POLAR JET STREAM REMAIN ELONGATED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH EARLY WEEK LEADING TO SOME INCREASE IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL BE LARGELY GOVERNED
BY BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE S/SW FLOW.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TODAY OF GENERALLY 25 TO 35 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST WITH THE DEW POINTS AND MINRH FOR THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE MORE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL RANGE OF MINRH
AT 30-40% THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY INTO 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 11C TO 13C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOW
TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY FUELED BY MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING OWING TO GUSTY SW WINDS ONCE AGAIN
ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO 12C TO 15C (~99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY). NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
MONDAY NIGHT, A WAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI. THE CHALLENGE
IS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS, AS IT IS LIKELY TO STALL
OUT AS IT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED/PARALLEL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TYPICALLY WE SEE THESE LAKE ENHANCED "BACKDOOR" FRONTS COME
SOUTH TO THE HWY 20-30 CORRIDORS THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLDER
LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS INDUCES LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC ASCENT WITH 100-150+M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 HPA ACCOMPANIED
BY BROAD SCALE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE FIRST BEING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE LIFT QUADRANT
(RIGHT ENTRANCE) OF A 500 HPA JET TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, WHICH WILL FACTOR INTO WHERE THE MORE FAVORED CORRIDOR(S)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST. THE INGREDIENTS OF STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO JUST
SOUTH OF A DUBUQUE TO CEDAR RAPIDS LINE, AND HAVE ADDED AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES WHERE THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE BEST OVERLAP OF PARAMETER SPACE WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. STILL A WAYS OUT TO GET MUCH MORE INTO THE
DETAILS, BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE IN PLAY WITH
A GENERAL TIMING OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STAY TUNED!
NEAR RECORD/RECORD WARMTH MAY FUEL THESE STORMS WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 16C. IN ADDITION ECMWF EFI VALUES GREATER
THAN +0.8 TO +0.9 FOR MAX TEMP SUPPORT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND
POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A "VERY UNUSUAL" EVENT OR IN THIS CASE
A LIKELIHOOD OF RECORD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR SOME, PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF I-80. THERE COULD BE QUITE A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
AND COOLER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTH
ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LAKE
ENHANCED FLOW POTENTIAL NORTH. SOMETHING TO ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COMING OFF THE RECENT RAINFALL THAT RESULTED
IN AREAS OF 1-2+ INCHES. LEADING TO THIS CONCERN IS 1) A TIGHT LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH LAKE INFLUENCE, 2) A SLOWER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
THAT COULD LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY, AND 3) ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS
WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR >2 SIGMA PWATS AT 70-90%. WPC HAS BEGUN
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN INTRODUCING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SERVICE AREA FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEANS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCH POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT VARY ON THE PLACEMENT
THOUGH GENERALLY SUGGEST IN OR NEAR PARTS OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED FOR MANY IT COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR SOME, PARTICULARLY IN THOSE AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES FRIDAY. SOMETHING TO
DEFINITELY MONITOR.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER BUT GENERALLY TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A
WARM FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND A QUICKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY, THUS HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN
FORECAST. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES (25-75TH PERCENTILE) ILLUSTRATE
THIS CONCERN OR CHALLENGE ON HIGHS DIFFERING BY 15-20+ DEGREES.
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES (RAIN/SNOW) WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN DRIER FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY, LLWS WILL BE THE CONCERN AFTER 08Z
THROUGH 14Z, AS WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45+ KT NEAR 2KFT AGL FROM
THE WSW. SSW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING, BUT
GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KT BY 12Z WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS TO
20+ KT. THE LLWS WILL ABATE BY 14Z-15Z AS SURFACE WINDS GUST
MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SW AT 20-30 KT THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE DAY SUNDAY, AND AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE/LULL AROUND SUNSET
EXPECT GUSTINESS TO ENSUE WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ RAMPING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KBRL: 74 IN 1986
KCID: 68 IN 2021
KDBQ: 65 IN 1977
KMLI: 71 IN 2021
MARCH 10:
KBRL: 76 IN 1955
KMLI: 74 IN 1955
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page