949
FXUS63 KDVN 220538
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW RISK (10-20%) RISK OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.
- PASSING SYSTEMS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING WINDS. WHILE THERE ARE
RAIN CHANCES, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. A FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE ACHIEVED BEFORE SUNSET.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. OVERALL A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COLDER COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
FORCING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS RESPECTABLE BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HOWEVER, INSTINCT TELLS ME THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL
ACROSS THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. IF SHOWERS DEVELOP, ONE
MAY BE ABLE TO COUNT THEM ON ONE HAND. AS SUCH, A 10-20% RISK OF
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SEEMS APPROPRIATE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A BRIEF
WARM-UP AHEAD OF TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, MAINLY THE GEFS AND A FEW MEMBERS OF THE EPS AND GEPS THAT
HAVE LIGHT QPF ON DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY THEN COOLER FRIDAY. LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN
CHANCES.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
REMNANTS OF A LOW END ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE
IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF IS NOT THERE
SO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA.
NORMALLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE LOW HAS GOOD PROSPECTS OF
PRODUCING RAIN IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. IN THIS CASE,
IT WILL BE LACKING.
AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF I-80 ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MJO IS PROGGED TO BE IN PHASE 8 DURING THIS TIME WHICH
NORMALLY CORRESPONDS TO DRIER THAN NORMAL.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN
SLOW AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, LLWS WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
WSW WINDS 40-45+ KT AROUND 1KFT AGL PER DVN VWP DATA. THE FRONT WILL
THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN ROUGHLY THE 09Z-14Z
TIMEFRAME BRINGING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO N/NE WHILE TURNING GUSTY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KT AND GUST 25-35 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR BASES, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS <3KFT AGL ARE JUST AROUND 20-30% PER NBM AND THUS
NOT MENTIONED ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS FOR ANY
CHANGES. KDBQ AND KCID WOULD BE THE SITES TO MONITOR FOR A TRANSITORY
BOUT OF MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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