069
FXUS63 KDVN 230539
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK
COOL DOWN, THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS THE ONLY TIME FRAME THAT HAS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN BUT THE TREND IN THOSE CHANCES IS SLOWLY DECREASING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
OUTSIDE OF A NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND 875 MB, THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY UP THROUGH H5 HPA. THE PROSPECTS OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A SHOWER ARE NOT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT 15-20% RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER RE-STABILIZES. A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 36 HOURS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF A WARMING TREND
AFTER A COOL MONDAY, RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GOING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER, THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY
SO THE PROBABILITY OF EVEN SPRINKLES OCCURRING IS 5-10%.
AS EXPECTED, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED DRY WITH THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT, LIKE THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
IS EXTREMELY DRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (20-30%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEAK AHEAD OF A PASSING LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70
IN THE FAR NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. RECORDS FOR MARCH
26TH ARE 80-85; NOT ENTIRELY UNREACHABLE BUT COULD BE CHALLENGED
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY GROUND AND THE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SWINGS THAT COULD EXCEED 30 DEGREES.
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP THE BETTER FORCING IS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, THUS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POST-FRONTAL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS 20-30% CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN
THE SAME CHANCES SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND
WITH POPS HAS BEEN TO LOWER THEM AROUND 5% SINCE YESTERDAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BEING SUPPLIED IS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT COMES ONSHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED OR NOT THERE AT ALL. IF THIS SCENARIO IS
CORRECT, THEN THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WITH POTENTIALLY POST FRONTAL SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND
AFTER A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN TEMPERATURES,
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY SIGNALING ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR THE
AREA.
THERE ARE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FLOW
ALOFT; ONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY WITH THE GULF JUST
STARTING TO OPEN UP ON SUNDAY. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL IMPACT KCID AND KDBQ THROUGH 09 UTC WITH
CURRENTLY VFR CEILINGS WIH CLOUDS AROUND 3500FT EXPECTED AT
KMLI AND KBRL. KBRL AND KMLI MAY NEEDED TO BE AMENDED IF THIS
CLOUD DECK IMPACTS THESE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTH CURRENTLY TO THE EAST
AFTER 18 UTC ON MONDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTH AFTER 03 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...COUSINS
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